农村劳动力老龄化对水稻全要素生产率的影响——基于中国水稻主产区的实证分析  

Impact of aging rural labor on total factor productivity of rice:Empirical analysis based on the main rice production areas of China

作　　者：宋雪 刘奥 何玉成[1] SONG Xue;LIU Ao;HE Yucheng(Huazhong Agricultural University,School of Economics and Management,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2025年第3期272-285,共14页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71573098);现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CAR-21);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2662024YT009)。

摘　　要：为探究农村劳动力老龄化对水稻全要素生产率的影响。基于2002—2021年中国23个水稻主产省(市、自治区)的面板数据,采用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算水稻全要素生产率,利用基准回归模型、调节效应模型和分组回归模型,系统分析了农村劳动力老龄化对水稻全要素生产率的影响及机理。结果表明:1)农村劳动力老龄化显著抑制了水稻全要素生产率增长;2)农村劳动力老龄化主要通过阻碍技术进步抑制水稻全要素生产率增长;3)机械化水平缓解了农村劳动力老龄化对水稻全要素生产率的抑制作用,但受地形约束,机械化水平的缓解作用仅在平原地区显著,在丘陵地区不显著。化肥施用强度在农村劳动力老龄化与水稻全要素生产率的关系中具有“倒u型”调节作用;4)异质性分析发现,农村劳动力老龄化对水稻全要素生产率的抑制作用仅在南方稻作区显著,在北方稻作区的抑制作用并不明显。为此,提出重视农村人才振兴、加大农业技术学习培训投入、加快农业机械化发展和引导农户科学合理施用化肥等建议。To investigate the impact of rural labor aging on rice total factor productivity,based on the panel data of 23 major rice-producing provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2002 to 2021,the DEA-Malmquist index method was used to measure the total factor productivity of rice.The baseline regression model,mediating effect model and moderating effect model were used to systematically analyze the impact and the mechanism of rural labor aging on the total factor productivity of rice.productivity and the mechanism.The results show that:1)Rural labor aging significantly inhibits the growth of rice total factor productivity;2)Rural labor aging inhibits the growth of rice total factor productivity by hindering technological progress;3)The mechanization level mitigates the inhibition of rice total factor productivity by rural labor aging,but the moderating effect of the mechanization level is only significant in the plains and not in the hilly areas due to the constraints of the terrain.Fertiliser application intensity has an"inverted u-shaped"moderating effect in the relationship between rural labor aging and rice total factor productivity;4)Heterogeneity analysis found that the inhibitory effect of rural labor ageing on rice total factor productivity is only significant in the southern rice cropping area,and not obvious in the northern rice cropping area.In this regard,suggestions are put forward,which arepaying attention to the revitalization of rural talents,increaseing the input of learning and training for the elderly labour force,accelerating the development of agricultural mechanization and guiding farmers to use fertilizers in a scientific and rational manner.

关 键 词：农村劳动力 老龄化 全要素生产率 机械化水平 化肥施用强度 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]