近50 a大汶河流域极端降水时空分布特征  

Characteristics of Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Dawen River Basin in Recent 50 Years

作　　者：惠莉 王坤 王希 徐晶 徐征和 回佩晨 刘博文 张而弛 HUI Li;WANG Kun;WANG Xi;XU Jing;XU Zhenghe;HUI Peichen;LIU Bowen;ZHANG Erchi(School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan 250022,Shandong,China;Zhangqiu Yellow River Bureau of Jinan Yellow River Bureau,Jinan 250200,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学水利与环境学院,山东济南250022 [2]济南黄河河务局章丘黄河河务局,山东济南250200

出　　处：《济南大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期167-177,共11页Journal of University of Jinan(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42007153,42007176);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2020QE285)。

摘　　要：为了研究全球气候变化环境下大汶河流域的极端降水特征,减轻极端降水对区域经济等的不良影响,基于大汶河流域6个国家气象站点的1970—2019年逐日降水数据,选取10个极端降水指数,利用线性趋势、5 a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析、反距离加权插值等方法,研究大汶河流域极端降水的时空分布特征。结果表明:大汶河流域近50 a年降水量、中雨日数、最长连续降水日数呈现增加的趋势,但增加趋势不显著,年降水强度、最长连续无水日数呈显著下降趋势,1 d最大降水量、3 d最大降水量、极端降水总量、大雨日数及暴雨日数5个指数呈不显著下降趋势;突变发生年份在20世纪70年代和21世纪以来较为集中,各指数周期变化稍有差异,除最长连续无水日数外,其余指标均有2个主周期,周期振荡较强烈;各指标年际均值的空间总体分布呈由东到西条带状或以某站点为核心辐射状分布,变化趋势的空间分布差异性明显,年降水强度、极端降水总量、最长连续无水日数3个指数在整个流域范围均呈下降变化。To study the characteristics of extreme precipitation in Dawen River Basin under the background of global climate change and reduce the adverse effects of extreme precipitation on regional economy,based on the daily precipitation data of 6 national meteorological stations in Dawen River Basin from 1970 to 2019,10 extreme precipitation indices were selected,and the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Dawen River Basin were investigated by using linear trend,5-year sliding average,Mann-Kendall mutation test,wavelet analysis,and inverse distance weighted interpolation.The results show that the annual precipitation(PT),number of moderate rain days(R10)and number of longest continuous precipitation days(CWD)in Dawen River Basin show an increasing trend in recent 50 years,but the increasing effect is not significant.The annual precipitation intensity(SDII)and the longest continuous no water days(CDD)show a significant decreasing trend.The five indexes of 1-day maximum precipitation(RX1day),3-day maximum precipitation(RX3day),total extreme precipitation(R95p),heavy rain days(R20)and storm days(R50)show no significant decreasing trend.The year of mutation occurrence is more concentrated since the 1970s and the 21st century.Besides,the cycle change of each index is slightly different.Except for CDD,the other indicators have two main cycles,and the cycle oscillation is stronger.The overall spatial distribution of the inter-annual mean value of each index is in the form of a strip from east to west or radial distribution with a site as the core,and the variability of spatial distribution of the change trend is obvious.Three indices of SDII,R95p,CDD show decreasing changes in the whole basin scale.

关 键 词：极端降水 时空分布特征 极端降水指数 Mann-Kendall突变检验 大汶河流域 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]