气候变化背景下野生刺梨适生区分布预测  

Study on the Prediction of the Distribution of Suitable Areas for Wild Rosa roxburghii under the Background of Climate Change

作　　者：张政涛 林叶彬[1] Zhang Zhengtao;Lin Yebin(China West Normal University,Nanchong 637009)

机构地区：[1]西华师范大学,四川南充637009

出　　处：《中阿科技论坛(中英文)》2025年第3期18-23,共6页China-Arab States Science and Technology Forum

摘　　要：刺梨作为广泛分布于我国西南地区的蔷薇科植物,是区域特色经济植物和治理喀斯特石漠化的重要生态植物。为阐明气候变化背景下刺梨的适生区分布情况,文章基于343条刺梨分布数据和多个环境因子数据,利用最大熵(Max Ent)模型模拟其当前(1970—2000年)适生区分布,并基于未来气候情景(SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)对其适生区分布进行预测,同时确定主要影响因子。研究结果表明:(1)在多个环境因子中,最冷季度平均温度(BIO11)对刺梨适生区分布的重要性最高,其次是最暖季度降水量(BIO18)。(2)在当前模拟结果中,总适生区面积为315.25×10^(4) km^(2),其中高度适生区面积为7.19×10^(4) km^(2),中度适生区面积为154.71×10^(4) km^(2)。高度适生区主要分布在四川中部、川陕交界与云贵高原东部。(3)在未来气候情景下,总适生区面积整体增加,中度适生区面积整体减少,高度适生区面积在低浓度情景(SSP2-4.5)下呈稳定上升趋势,在高浓度情景(SSP5-8.5)下则呈波动变化。(4)刺梨适生区整体呈现向高纬度迁移趋势,并且在多个情景中均出现了华北地区新高度适生区产生的情况。As a widely distributed Rosaceae plant in southwestern China,Rosa roxburghii is a regional characteristic cash crop and an important plant for controlling karst desertification.To this end,this article simulated the distribution of its current(1970-2000)suitable area based on 343 data and multiple environmental factors using the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt),and made predictions based on future climate scenarios(SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5),while determining the main influencing factors.The research findings indicate that:(1)Among multiple environmental factors,the average temperature of the coldest season(BIO11)was the most critical to the distribution of suitable areas,followed by the precipitation in the warmest season(BIO18).(2)Currently,the total suitable area is 315.25×10^(4) km^(2),of which the highly suitable area is 7.19×10^(4) km^(2),moderately suitable area is 154.71×10^(4) km^(2).Highly suitable areas are located in central Sichuan,Sichuan-Shaanxi border,and the eastern part of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.(3)Under the future climate scenario,the total suitable area will increase,while moderate suitable area will decrease.The highly suitable area will show a stable upward trend under the low concentration scenario(SSP2-4.5)and fluctuate under the high concentration scenario(SSP5-8.5).(4)The suitable area is shifting towards higher latitudes,and new highly suitable areas have emerged in multiple scenarios in north China.

关 键 词：野生刺梨 MAXENT 适生区 气候变化 

分 类 号：S-01[农业科学]