“肉案子”安全视角下我国肉鸡产业链价格传导:微观机制与实证检验  

“Meat safety”perspective on price transmission in China’s broiler industry chain:micro-mechanism and empirical test

作　　者：谢宁 毛文艺 刘阳彬 刘小春[1] 翁贞林[1,2] XIE Ning;MAO Wenyi;LIU Yangbin;LIU Xiaochun;WENG Zhenin(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China;Jiangxi Rural Revitalization Strategy Research Institute,Nanchang 330045,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学经济管理学院,南昌330045 [2]江西省乡村振兴战略研究院,南昌330045

出　　处：《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2025年第3期143-153,共11页Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine

基　　金：江西省社会科学“十四五”基金项目(23YJ22);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(GL22233);江西省现代农业产业技术体系产业经济岗位专家项目(JXARS-09)。

摘　　要：为了促进我国肉鸡产业高质量发展、保障城乡居民“肉案子”安全,本研究基于我国2009—2021年肉雏鸡价格、肉鸡饲料价格、活鸡价格和鸡肉价格月度数据,采用Johansen协整关系检验、短期向量误差修正模型估计、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解、非对称传导模型和滚动回归方法深入分析了我国肉鸡产业链价格传导机制。结果表明:肉鸡产业链价格体系内部存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但肉鸡产业链市场价格偏离均衡后调节回到系统均衡的速度较慢;在多数情况下,肉鸡产业链不同环节之间的价格相互正向传导,但传导过程存在一定的滞后时间;活鸡价格在我国肉鸡产业链价格传导体系中居于核心地位;肉鸡饲料和活鸡价格上涨对鸡肉价格的影响要高于下跌的影响,而肉雏鸡价格下跌对鸡肉价格的影响要高于上涨的影响。基于此,笔者提出如下建议:完善我国肉鸡产业链价格监测预警体系;促进肉鸡生产各环节数字信息化,提高价格传导效率;提升肉鸡规模化养殖水平,加强产业链纵向联合。To advance the high-quality development of the broiler industry and ensure the“meat safety”for urban and rural residents,this study analyzed the price transmission mechanisms within China’s broiler industry chain.Monthly data from 2009 to 2021 on broiler chick prices,chicken feed prices,live chicken prices,and chicken meat prices were examined using Johansen cointegration tests,vector error correction models,Granger causality tests,impulse response functions,variance decomposition,asymmetric transmission model and rolling regression techniques.The results indicated that a long-term stable equilibrium relationship existed within the price system of the broiler industry chain,while the adjustment speed to restore equilibrium following market price deviations was relatively slow.In most cases,prices across different segments of the broiler industry chain exhibited positive transmission,albeit with certain time lags.The live broiler price served as a pivotal element in the price transmission system of China’s broiler industry chain.Furthermore,increases in broiler feed and live broiler prices had more influences on chicken meat prices compare to price declines,whereas decreases in broiler chick prices had a greater impact on chicken meat prices than price increases.Based on these insights,the study suggested improving China’s broiler industry chain price monitoring and early warning system,advancing digital informatization throughout all production stages to optimize price transmission efficiency,increasing the scale of broiler farming,and reinforcing vertical integration within the industry chain.

关 键 词：肉鸡 产业链 价格传导 向量误差修正模型 滚动回归 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]