近40年粤港澳大湾区水资源演变与生态环境格局变化  

Evolution of water resources and changes of ecological environment pattern in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area in the past 40 years

作　　者：赵良杰[1,2] 王莹 栾崧 杨杨 吴树诚[4] 王喆 李录娟 ZHAO Liangjie;WANG Ying;LUAN Song;YANG Yang;WU Shucheng;WANG Zhe;LI Lujuan(Institute of Karst Geology,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Ministry of Nature Resources,Guangxi Key Laboratory of Karst Dynamics/UNESCO International Center for Karst Studies,Guilin 541004,Guangxi,China;National Field Scientific Observatory for Karst Ecosystems,Baise 531406,Guangxi,China;Guangdong Provincial Geological environment monitoring Station,Guangzhou 510510,Guangdong,China;Guilin Hydrology Center,Guilin 541004,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院岩溶地质研究所/自然资源部、广西岩溶动力学重点实验室/联合国教科文组织国际岩溶研究中心,广西桂林541004 [2]广西平果喀斯特生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站,广西百色531406 [3]广东省地质环境监测总站,广东广州510510 [4]桂林水文中心,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《中国地质》2025年第1期215-231,共17页Geology in China

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金(42102296);国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFB3907703);广东省水资源调查监测评价及广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB21220044)联合资助。

摘　　要：【研究目的】受气候变化与人类活动的双重影响,亟需深化对粤港澳大湾区水资源演变规律的认识,以期为实现区域水资源的可持续管理提供科学依据和决策支持。【研究方法】本文采用定性与定量相结合、历史文献资料的深度挖掘以及多源水资源监测数据,全面分析大湾区自1980年以来近40年间的水文、降水、地表覆盖等水资源环境格局变化及其区域分异规律。【研究结果】大湾区水资源状况总体上呈现"西多东少、北多南少"的分布特征,1980—2022年平均气温22.2℃,降雨2022.1 mm,主要变化周期约4.1 a。西江、北江、东江干流平均径流量分别为11231.09 m^(3)/s、1479.63 m^(3)/s、809.42 m^(3)/s,径流变差系数介于0.19~0.27,气候格局呈现出暖湿化的趋势,水体总量出现减少趋势,植被覆盖整体上升但局部出现退化,显著退化面积6225.98 km^(2),改善面积9537.31 km^(2);水体(含湿地)面积变化速率呈现“缓慢萎缩−加速萎缩−稳步增长−缓慢增长”的阶段性特征。【结论】提出具有开发远景的41处应急备用水源地,允许开采量达234.26万m^(3)/d。大湾区具有水资源与经济发展的不协调、水生态服务功能退化、水资源时空分布不均及以地表水为主的供水水源结构单一等特点。[Objective]Due to the dual impacts of climate change and human activities,there is an urgent need to deepen the understanding of the evolution of water resources in the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao,with a view to providing a scientific basis and decision-making support for the realization of the sustainable management of regional water resources.[Methods]This paper employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,leveraging in-depth analysis of historical literature alongside multi-source water resource monitoring data to comprehensively examine changes in hydrology,precipitation,land cover,and other environmental factors related to water resources in the Greater Bay Area over the past 40 years(1980–2020).It also explores the regional patterns of differentiation in these changes.[Results]Our findings reveal a general water resource distribution trend of"abundance in the west and north,scarcity in the east and south,"with an average temperature of 22.2℃and annual precipitation of 2022.1 mm from 1980 to 2022.The study observes a major cyclical change every 4.1 years.The average runoff of the Xijiang,Beijiang,and Dongjiang Rivers is quantified,alongside the variation in runoff coefficients,reflecting a warm and humid climatic trend.Concurrently,the total volume of water bodies exhibits a declining trajectory,while vegetation cover overall shows an increase but with local degradation.[Conclusions]The study identifies 41 potential emergency backup water sources,with a sustainable extraction capacity of 2342600 m^(3)/day.It highlights the ongoing mismatch between water resources and economic development in the Greater Bay Area,the reduction of water ecosystem service functions,the spatial and temporal imbalances in water resource distribution,and the region's over-reliance on a predominantly surface water-based supply structure.

关 键 词：水资源演变 应急备用水源 地质环境动力 气候变化 水文地质调查工程 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：P641.3[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]