山洪致灾临界雨量计算方法对比分析  

Comparative analysis of calculation methods of critical rainfall threshold for mountain flood disaster

作　　者：奚世军 陈红专[1] 罗植荣 曾林[1] 王强[1] 施君[1] 肖方荣 蒲建怀 XI Shijun;CHEN Hongzhuan;LUO Zhirong;ZENG Lin;WANG Qiang;SHI Jun;XIAO Fangrong;PU Jianhuai(Huaihua Meteorological Bureau,Huaihua 418000,China)

机构地区：[1]怀化市气象局,湖南怀化418000

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2025年第3期1-7,13,共8页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：湖南省气象局2023年创新发展专项(青年专项)(CXFZ2023-QNZX08);怀化市气象局2023年重点课题(HHQX23A003)。

摘　　要：为提高山区山洪灾害的预警能力,以湖南省安江流域、辰溪流域为例,对基于GIS栅格的二维非恒定流水文动力(FloodArea)模型和统计方法2种山区流域致灾临界雨量计算方法进行对比分析。利用监测站点的洪水涨幅变化量和逐小时面雨量,使用统计方法构建致灾面雨量模型,计算出致灾临界面雨量。通过使用逐小时面雨量、产流系数和地表粗糙度共同驱动FloodArea模型,模拟山洪淹没动态过程;利用山洪淹没深度和逐小时面雨量构建流域致灾面雨量模型,计算出致灾临界面雨量。最后,将2种方法的计算结果进行对比分析。结果表明:①安江流域、辰溪流域的逐小时洪水涨幅与累积面雨量相关性显著,致灾临界面雨量有效时间均为13~16 h;②比较2种方法计算的致灾临界面雨量,FloodArea模型的计算结果偏大,但两种方法计算结果的变化趋势基本保持一致;③与FloodArea模型相比,统计方法能够快速高效地构建降水与洪水涨幅的关系,但FloodArea模型能够精细刻画降水径流过程,其结果更具有真实性。因此,在山洪灾害预警过程中,通过综合使用2种方法可以实现优势互补,得到科学合理的山洪灾害致灾临界面雨量,从而提高山区山洪灾害的预警能力。In order to improve the early warning ability of mountain flood disasters,we took Anjiang Basin and Chenxi Basin as examples to calculate critical rainfall threshold for mountain flood disaster by two methods.The hourly areal rainfall was used as the independent variable and the flood increase variation of the monitoring station was used as the dependent variable.The statistical method was used to construct the disaster-causing areal rainfall model,and the critical areal rainfall was calculated.Based on the FloodArea model driven by hourly areal rainfall,runoff coefficient and surface roughness,the model of disaster-causing areal rainfall in basin was constructed by taking the simulated inundation depth as the dependent variable and hourly areal rainfall as the independent variable,and the critical areal rainfall was calculated.Finally,we compared the results of the two methods.The results showed that:①The hourly flood increase in Anjiang Basin and Chenxi Basin were significantly correlated with the cumulative area rainfall,and the effective time of the critical area rainfall was 13 to 16 hours.②Comparing the critical surface rainfall calculated by two methods,the results calculated by the FloodArea model were larger,but the trend of the two results were basically the same.③Compared with the FloodArea model,the statistical method can quickly and efficiently construct the relationship between precipitation and flood rise,but the FloodArea model is more accurate in describing the precipitation runoff process,and the results are more authentic.Therefore,in the process of mountain torrent disaster early warning,the comprehensive use of two methods can achieve complementary advantages,and more scientific critical surface rainfall of mountain torrent disaster can be obtained in mountainous areas,so as to improve the early warning ability of mountain torrent disaster.

关 键 词：致灾临界雨量 山洪灾害 FloodArea模型 统计分析法 安江流域 辰溪流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]