“一带一路”国际物流通道联通的双边贸易效应——基于“海丝”沿线国家的证据  

Test on the Bilateral Trade Effect of the International Logistics Corridor Connectivity Under the“Belt and Road”Initiative:Based on the Evidence From CountriesAlong the“Maritime Silk Road”

作　　者：范月娇[1] 韩媛媛 FAN Yue-jiao;HAN Yuan-yuan

机构地区：[1]华侨大学工商管理学院,福建泉州362021 [2]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《华侨大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第1期38-55,共18页Journal of Huaqiao University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘一带一路’倡议下国际物流通道建设及其区域空间效应研究”(18BJY167);高层次人才科研启动项目“物流通道的形成与区域空间结构演变”(17SKBS304)。

摘　　要：从“一带一路”倡议下政策沟通、设施联通和贸易畅通的现实背景出发,以国际物流通道联通支撑贸易畅通为视角,运用“海丝”沿线国家2006—2019年数据,在测算海上国际物流通道联通指数基础上,通过构建多边贸易阻力实证模型,验证了“海丝”国际物流通道的联通对中国与沿线国家的双边贸易效应。研究结果表明:(1)“海丝”国际物流通道的联通显著促进了双边贸易,且“一带一路”合作显著改善了沿线国际物流通道的联通性并促进了双边贸易。(2)“海丝”货运通道与信息通道的联通对双边贸易有正向影响,而通关服务通道联通为负向影响,“一带一路”合作显著改善了货运通道和信息通道联通性并促进了双边贸易,但并未改善通关服务通道的联通性及其双边贸易效应。(3)三个分段国际物流通道的联通均产生了双边贸易效应,倡议合作改善了西亚—非洲—欧洲国际物流通道的联通性并促进了双边贸易,但未明显改善东南亚和南亚—西亚国际物流通道的联通性;货运通道、信息通道和通关服务通道的联通在三个分通道的双边贸易效应有明显差异,且“一带一路”合作给不同国际物流通道带来的贸易效应也存在明显差异。Starting from the background of policy coordination,connectivity of infrastructure and facilities,unimpeded trade under the“Belt and Road”initiative,and from the perspective of the connectivity of international logistics corridors supporting unimpeded trade,this paper uses the data of countries along the“Maritime Silk Road”from 2006 to 2019 to build an empirical model of multilateral trade resistance on the basis of measuring the Maritime International Logistics Corridor Connectivity Index,and verifies the bilateral trade effect of the connectivity of the international logistics corridors between China and the countries along the“Maritime Silk Road”.The results show that:(1)The connectivity of the“Maritime Silk Road”international logistics corridors has significantly promoted bilateral trade,and the“Belt and Road”cooperation has significantly improved the connectivity of the international logistics corridors and promoted bilateral trade.(2)The connectivity of“Maritime Silk Road”freight corridor and information corridor has a positive impact on bilateral trade,while the connectivity of customs clearance service corridor has a negative impact.The“Belt and Road”cooperation significantly improved the connectivity of freight corridor and information corridor and promotes bilateral trade,but does not improved the connectivity of customs clearance service corridor.(3)The connectivity of the three sub-corridors has generated bilateral trade effects,and the“Belt and Road”cooperation has improved the connectivity of the West Asia-Africa-Europe international logistics corridor and promoted bilateral trade,but has not significantly improved the connectivity of the Southeast Asia and South Asia-West Asia international logistics corridor;There are obvious differences in the bilateral trade effects of the connectivity of freight corridor,information corridor and customs clearance service corridor in the three sub-corridors,and there are also obvious differences in the trade effects of the“the B

关 键 词：国际物流通道 双边贸易效应 政策效应 海上国际物流通道联通指数(MILCI) 海上丝绸之路 

分 类 号：F5[经济管理—产业经济]