产业关联视角下数字化水平对碳排放影响研究  

A Study on the Impact of Digitalization Level on Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Industrial Correlation

作　　者：周明生[1,2] 赵杉杉 ZHOU Mingsheng;ZHAO Shanshan

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]北京财贸职业学院,北京101100

出　　处：《济南大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期124-140,191,共18页Journal of University of Jinan:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字政府建设赋能城市环境治理的影响效应与长效机制研究”(项目编号:24CJY039)。

摘　　要：数字化、低碳化是当前经济社会发展的主流趋势。建立以产业关联水平为中介的数字化对碳排放影响的理论模型,基于2012—2021年“省域—行业—年份”三维面板数据,从理论和实证两方面探索产业关联视角下数字化水平对碳排放量的影响。结果表明:数字化发展对碳排放量的影响具有先增加后减少的倒“U”型特征,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。异质性分析表明,数字化对碳排放的影响因区域和行业的不同而表现出差异,具体表现为发展相对落后的中、西部地区能在较低的数字化水平下享受其生态红利。同时,相较于第一、第三产业,第二产业数字化水平降低碳排放的拐点值较高。产业关联效应的引入使得数字化水平与碳排放之间倒“U”型曲线呈现形态平缓,拐点右移的特点,其中,数字化的前向关联效应能够促进碳减排,而后向关联效应会增加碳排放。研究结论为更好地发挥数字化的碳减排效应提供指导与启示。Digitalization and low-carbon development are the prevailing trends in the current economic and social landscape.A theoretical model has been developed with level of industrial correlation as the intermediary to examine the impact of digitalization on carbon emissions.Utilizing the"province-industry-year"three-dimensional panel data spanning from 2012 to 2021,this study theoretically and empirically explores how digitalization level affects carbon emissions from the perspective of industrial correlation.The findings indicate that the relationship between digital development and carbon emissions follows an inverted U-shaped curve.Specifically,carbon emissions initially rise with digital development and then decline.This conclusion remains valid even after a series of rigorous robustness tests.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the influence of digitalization on carbon emissions varies across different regions and industries.The relatively less-developed central and western regions can reap ecological benefits at a relatively low level of digitalization.Meanwhile,compared to the primary and tertiary industries,the secondary industry requires a higher level of digitalization to reach the inflection point for carbon emission reduction.The incorporation of the industrial correlation effect causes the inverted U-shaped curve between the digitalization level and carbon emissions to become flatter,with the inflection point shifting to the right.Among these effects,the forward correlation effect of digitalization can promote carbon emission reduction,while the backward correlation effect leads to an increase in carbon emissions.The conclusions of this research offer guidance and inspiration for maximizing the carbon-emission reduction potential of digitalization.

关 键 词：数字化 碳排放 前向关联 后向关联 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F205