贵州省旅游产业与新型城镇化耦合协调的时空演变及影响因素研究  

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Coupling Coordination between the Tourism Industry and New Urbanization in Guizhou Province

作　　者：陈桃红[1] 江艳枫 CHEN Tao-hong;JIANG Yan-feng(School of Management,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学管理学院,广西南宁530006

出　　处：《黔南民族师范学院学报》2024年第6期83-95,共13页Journal of Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新一轮西部大开放背景下西南边疆民族地区综合交通运输体系发展战略研究”(21AJY004);2021年度广西民族大学重大科研项目“乡村振兴战略下广西农村产业融合的动力机制与升级路径研究”(2021MDSKZD01);广西民族大学人才引进项目“广西农村三产融合的动态演进及发展机制研究”(2021SKQD14)。

摘　　要：新质生产力是构建旅游产业与新型城镇化协调发展的关键动力,支撑贵州旅游强省建设。运用熵值法评价旅游产业与新型城镇化子系统,耦合协调度和相对发展度模型分析两系统协调发展水平和时空演变特征,面板向量自回归模型分析其因果关系,结合灰色关联度探究其耦合协调度影响因素。研究表明:贵州省9市州旅游产业与新型城镇化发展水平总体呈增长趋势,受疫情影响2020年旅游产业发展有所下降。两系统耦合协调水平由中度失调向良好协调转变,相对发展度呈新型城镇化滞后到旅游产业滞后趋势。两系统具有正向互为因果关系,且其耦合度影响因素以经济发展水平、交通通达性、人口素质为主,其他影响因素作用各异。贵州省各市州应采取针对性措施补齐发展短板,以促进两系统协调发展。New quality productive forces are the key driver for the coordinated development of tourism industry and new urbanization,and support the construction of Guizhou as a tourism-strong province.The entropy method is used to evaluate the tourism industry and the new urbanization subsystem.The coupling coordination degree and relative development degree models are introduced to analyze the coordinated development level and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the two systems.Panel vector autoregression model is used to analyze their causal relationship,and grey correlation degree is used to explore the influencing factors of coupling coordination.Research shows that the tourism industry and the development level of new urbanization in nine cities and prefectures in Guizhou Province are generally on the rise,but the development of the tourism industry has declined in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic.The level of coupling coordination between the two systems has shifted from moderate imbalance to good coordination,and the relative development degree is showing a trend from lagging behind in new urbanization to lagging behind in the tourism industry.The two systems have a positive causal relationship with each other,and their coupling degree is mainly influenced by economic development level,transportation accessibility,and population quality,while other influencing factors have different effects.Each city and prefecture in Guizhou Province should take targeted measures to fill the gaps in development and promote coordinated development between the two systems.

关 键 词：旅游产业 新型城镇化 耦合协调 相对发展度 新质生产力 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F299.21[经济管理—产业经济]