中国家庭福利水平的测度、区域差异及动态演进  

Measurement,Regional Difference and Dynamic Evolution of Family Welfare Level in China

作　　者：贾小爱[1] 刘宇慧 Jia Xiaoai;Liu Yuhui

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院统计学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《统计理论与实践》2025年第1期71-81,共11页STATISTICAL THEORY AND PRACTICE

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“国民经济核算分类体系现代化的理论、方法与中国实践研究”(22ATJ001);国家社会科学基金重大项目“国民福利核算理论、方法与中国实践研究”(22&ZD165)。

摘　　要：结合可行能力理论,将家庭福利分为主观福利和客观福利,引入户主的主观态度评价,构建家庭福利指标体系,选择2012—2020年25个省份的中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用熵值法对中国家庭福利水平进行测算分析,并运用Dagum基尼系数和核密度估计法探究家庭福利水平的区域差异及分布特征。研究发现:2012—2020年我国家庭福利水平处于稳步上升态势,沿海地区的家庭福利水平普遍高于其他地区;家庭的客观福利水平取决于当地经济发展水平,家庭的主观福利水平则取决于社会信任度;家庭福利水平区域内差异呈现“下降-上升-下降”演进趋势,组间超变密度是家庭福利区域差异的主要来源;家庭福利水平的空间极化现象在逐渐减弱,绝对差异增大。基于此,提出针对各省份制定家庭福利专项政策,发挥区域重大战略的辐射带动和示范引领作用,构建国家政策援助、社会支持与家庭功能有机结合的家庭福利支持体系等建议,为提升家庭福利水平提供有效借鉴。Drawing on the Capability Approach,this study develops a comprehensive family welfare indicator system by categorizing family welfare into subjective and objective dimensions and integrating the subjective attitudes of household heads.Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)spanning 25 provinces from 2012 to 2020,the entropy weight method is employed to quantify the level of family welfare.Additionally,the study applies the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation to examine the regional disparities and distributional characteristics of family welfare levels.The study reveals that from 2012 to 2020,the level of family welfare in China has exhibited a consistent upward trajectory.Families in coastal regions consistently demonstrate higher welfare levels compared to those in other regions.Objective welfare levels are found to be contingent upon local economic development,while subjective welfare levels are influenced by the degree of social trust.Regional disparities in family welfare levels follow a“decline-rise-decline”trend,with between-group super-density emerging as the primary source of these disparities.Additionally,the spatial polarization of family welfare levels is gradually diminishing,although absolute differences are widening.Based on these findings,the study proposes several recommendations:developing province-specific family welfare policies,leveraging the radiation and demonstration effects of major regional strategies,and establishing a family welfare support system that organically combines national policy assistance,social support and family functions.These suggestions provide valuable reference for improving family welfare levels.

关 键 词：家庭福利水平 客观福利 主观福利 可行能力 区域差异 

分 类 号：C811[社会学—统计学]