基于熵权法+TOPSIS的改进型缓冲区模型优化研究  

Research on the Optimization of an Improved Buffer Model Based on Entropy Weight Method+TOPSIS

作　　者：刘威 田乙茜 张玉波 韩利红[1] LIU Wei;TIAN Yiqian;ZHANG Yubo;HAN Lihong(College of Architecture and Engineering,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China)

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学建筑工程学院,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2025年第1期89-94,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：云南省农业联合专项面上项目(202101BD070001-118);城乡建设专业群数智建筑一体化实践教学体系建设与实践(2024SJJX021).

摘　　要：随着施工项目复杂性的增加,传统进度管理方法如关键路径法难以有效应对资源约束和不确定性,从而增加了项目延期的风险。为此,基于关键链法提出了一种改进型缓冲区模型,利用熵权法和TOPSIS对资源紧张度、链路复杂度、持续时间、风险弹性系数和环境影响系数关键要素进行客观量化,以优化关键链识别;并基于根方差法结合管理者的风险偏好动态调整缓冲区大小。将该模型应用于P项目进度模拟,工期由174天缩短至159天;使用蒙特卡罗模拟,在100%完工概率下,模型计算结果与模拟数据高度一致,验证了其可靠性。研究表明,该模型能够合理设定缓冲区,有效缩短工期并提升管理效率,适用于复杂环境下的项目进度管理,具有一定参考价值。With the increasing complexity of construction projects,traditional schedule management methods such as the critical path method(CPM)are struggling to effectively handle resource constraints and uncertainties,which in turn increases the risk of project delays.To address the mentioned research gap,this study proposes an improved buffer model based on critical chain project management(CCPM).The model uses the entropy weight method and TOPSIS to quantify key factors such as resource tightness,link complexity,duration,risk elasticity coefficient,and environmental impact coefficient to optimize the identification of the critical chain.Additionally,a dynamic adjustment of buffer sizes is made based on the root square error method(RSEM)combined with the manager's risk preferences.The model is applied to simulate the schedule of Project P,reducing the project duration from 174 days to 159 days.Monte Carlo simulations show that the model's results closely match the simulated data at a 100%completion probability,confirming its reliability.The study demonstrates that this model can reasonably set buffer zones,effectively shorten project duration,and improve management efficiency,making it suitable for schedule management in complex environments and providing valuable insights for practical applications.

关 键 词：关键链项目管理 缓冲区设置 熵权法 TOPSIS 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TU722[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]