农业数字化对我国粮食体系韧性的影响——基于我国粮食主产区的实证研究  

The impact of agricultural digitization on the resilience of China's grain system——based on the empirical study of major grain-producing areas in China

作　　者：钱昭英[1] 魏基超 QIAN Zhaoying;WEI Jichao(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵州财经大学管理科学与工程学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期48-59,共12页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：2022年度贵州省哲学社会科学规划课题“数字赋能贵州农产品流通体系高质量发展的理论逻辑及实现路径研究”(22GZYB19)。

摘　　要：提升粮食体系韧性水平对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究基于2011-2022年我国13个粮食主产区的面板数据,在理论分析的基础上,运用固定效应模型、调节效应模型、门槛效应模型分析了农业数字化对我国粮食主产区粮食体系韧性的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:农业数字化对我国粮食主产区粮食体系韧性具有显著的正向影响;异质性分析结果显示,农业数字化对南方主产区和非粮食净调出省的粮食体系韧性有着更为显著的正向影响;调节效应分析结果显示,财政支农水平在农业数字化影响我国粮食主产区粮食体系韧性中具有正向调节作用,并且对北方主产区的调节作用更为显著;门槛效应分析结果显示,财政支农水平在农业数字化影响我国粮食主产区粮食体系韧性中的正向调节作用存在门槛效应。据此,提出以下政策建议:加快粮食主产区农业数字化技术的推广和应用;发挥好南方主产区农业数字化先进地区的示范作用;根据南北方主产区的异质性特征,制定差异化农业数字化策略。Improving the resilience level of the food system is of great significance for ensuring national food security.This study is based on panel data from 13 major grain producing areas in China from 2011 to 2022.Based on theoretical analysis,fixed effects model,moderation effect model,and threshold effect model are used to analyze the mechanism of agricultural digitization and its effect on the resilience of the grain system in major grain producing areas in China.The results are the following:Agricultural digitization has a significant positive impact on the resilience of the grain system in China's major grain producing areas;The heterogeneity analysis results show that agricultural digitization has a more significant positive impact on the resilience of the grain system in the main production areas and non-grain net outflow provinces in the south;The results of the moderation effect analysis show that the level of fiscal support for agriculture has a positive moderating impact on the resilience of the grain system in China's major grain producing areas under the influence of agricultural digitization,and the moderating effect is more significant in the northern major grain producing areas;The threshold effect analysis results show that the positive moderating effect of fiscal support for agriculture on the impact of agricultural digitalization in major grain-producing regions in China has a threshold effect.Accordingly,the following policy recommendations are proposed:accelerate the promotion and application of agricultural digital technology in major grain-producing regions;Give full play to the exemplary role of advanced agricultural digitalization in the main production areas of the south;formulate differentiated agricultural digitalization strategies based on the heterogeneity characteristics of southern and northern main production areas.

关 键 词：农业数字化 粮食体系韧性 调节效应 门槛效应 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]