改进收益法的小程序无形资产组价值评估应用——以W约球小程序为例  

Application of Improved Income Approach in the Valuation of Intangible Asset Groups of Small Programs--A Case Study of W about Ball Small Program

作　　者：胡艳[1] 邓亚玲 柳明翔 赵宣 朱佳丽 胡明涛 Hu Yan;Deng Yaling;Liu Mingxiang;Zhao Xuan;Zhu Jiali;Hu Mingtao(Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430070;Zhengzhou Branch of Agricultural Bank of China Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou,Henan 450000;COFCO Trust Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan,Hubei 430070;Beijing Kunyuan Zhicheng Asset Appraisal Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan,Hubei 430070)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学,湖北武汉430070 [2]中国农业银行股份有限公司郑州分行,河南郑州450000 [3]中粮信托有限责任公司,湖北武汉430070 [4]北京坤元至诚资产评估有限公司,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国资产评估》2025年第2期66-80,F0003,共16页Appraisal Journal of China

摘　　要：近年来小程序在餐饮、零售等多个行业得到广泛应用,借助人工智能、机器学习等新技术的创新融合,进一步拓展应用场景,实现跨行业整合和联动。根据Quest Mobile数据显示,2024年6月小程序活跃用户已达12.35亿并持续上涨,而目前对小程序无形资产的价值评估研究较少。因此,本文以W约球小程序无形资产组价值评估为研究对象,针对原案例评估存在的问题,采用改进后的收益法进行再评估,应用灰色预测模型预测未来订单数量,引用客户经济生命周期理论将客户流失率纳入考虑范围,并运用最好最差法改进收入提成率的计算。In recent years,mini-programs have been widely applied in multiple industries such as catering and retail.With the innovative integration of new technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning,they have further expanded application scenarios and achieved cross-industry integration and interaction.According to data from Quest Mobile,the number of active mini-program users reached 1.235 billion in June 2024 and is still on the rise.However,there is currently a lack of research on the value assessment of intangible assets of mini-programs.Therefore,this paper takes the intangible asset group value assessment of the Waboutball mini-program as the research object.In response to the problems existing in the original case assessment,an improved income approach is adopted for re-assessment.The grey prediction model is applied to predict future order volumes,and the customer economic life cycle theory is introduced to take the customer churn rate into consideration.Additionally,the best-worst method is utilized to improve the calculation of the revenue sharing rate.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 客户经济生命周期 最好最差法 无形资产评估 

分 类 号：F714[经济管理—产业经济] F719