阿克苏河流域平原区地下水位动态变化及归因分析  

Dynamic Change and Attribution Analysis of Groundwater Level in Plain Area of Aksu River Basin

作　　者：包芝林 吴彬[1,2] 王翠 杜明亮 班静雅[1,2] BAO Zhilin;WU Bin;WANG Cui;DU Mingliang;BAN Jingya(College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Xinjiang Key Lab oratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2025年第2期128-140,共13页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2021xjkk0203)。

摘　　要：研究干旱区流域地下水位动态变化及其响应关系,对加强地下水资源有效管控具有重要意义。该文以阿克苏河流域平原区为研究区,基于2011-2022年地下水水位埋深、高精度降水数据集以及土地利用等数据,采用重心迁移模型、冗余分析及随机森林模型等方法,分析地下水位时空变化及驱动机制。结果表明:(1)阿克苏河流域平原区的地下水以开采型为主,地下水动态类型为慢速下降型。2011-2022年,区域内地下水位总体呈现下降趋势,其水位埋深呈现自平原区周边向中心逐渐增大趋势。地下水位变化与气象干旱的响应并不显著,气象干旱并不是导致水位变化的主要原因;(2)同期,区域内土地利用类型发生了显著变化,未利用地和草地面积呈现显著下降趋势,分别下降2.53%和3.62%,耕地面积呈现显著上升趋势,上升10.11%,耕地重心呈现先北后南的变化趋势,结合相关性结果表明,耕地的大量转化导致了流域用水需求的增加;(3)归因分析表明,在农业开发强度逐年提高的背景下,流域内耕地面积的迅速增加导致农业用水需求的增加,同时由于地下水开采量逐年增加、地表引水量逐年减少,导致阿克苏河流域平原区地下水位逐年降低。Researches of the dynamic changes and response correlations of groundwater levels in arid region watersheds are of crucial importance for the sustainable management of groundwater resources.In this paper,the research focused on the plain area of the Aksu River Basin;the spatial and temporal variations of groundwater levels and their driving factors were analyzed using annual data of 2011-2022,which involved groundwater depth,high-resolution precipitation datasets,and land use patterns,and the center-of-gravity migration model,redundancy analysis,and random forest model were employed as well.As a result of the research,it was showed that groundwater extraction was a dominant water-drawing means in this area,and the dynamic pattern of the groundwater was of the slow-descent type.During the period(2011-2022),the groundwater level within the region generally showed a downward trend;moreover,groundwater depth gradually increased from the pe-riphery towards the center of the plain,and no weakening correlation was notably found between groundwater level changes and meteorological drought,suggesting that drought is not the primary driver of groundwater fluctuations.During the same pe-riod,substantial changes in terms of land-use pattern were observed.The areas of undeveloped land and grassland de-creased by 2.53%and 3.62%,respectively,while cultivated land expanded by 10.11%.The center of gravity for cultivated land initially shifted northward,then southward.Correlation analysis suggested that the extensive conversion of land to cultivation has significantly increased water demand within the basin;and attribution analysis revealed that increased agricultural develop-ment,coupled with rising annual groundwater extraction and reduced diversion of surface water resulted to a continuous de-cline in groundwater levels in the plain areas of the Aksu River Basin.

关 键 词：地下水位埋深 气象干旱 土地利用 响应机制 阿克苏河流域 

分 类 号：X523[环境科学与工程—环境工程]