21世纪我国煤矿水害事故统计及演化趋势分析预测  

Statistics and evolution trend analysis and prediction of coal mine water disaster accidents in China in the 21st century

作　　者：柴金城 鹿存金 许进鹏[1] 李璞 CHAI Jincheng;LU Cunjin;XU Jinpeng;LI Pu(School of Resources and Geosicences,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2025年第2期195-202,共8页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(52274243);国家资助博士后研究人员计划资助项目(GZC20233005);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(2024QN1102)。

摘　　要：通过国家矿山安全监察局等官方渠道整理了2000—2023年我国煤矿事故资料,对水害事故数据进行了统计分析;研究了21世纪以来我国水害事故的演化规律及趋势、重特大水害的分布特征及背后诱因,并对2024、2025年煤矿水害事故情况进行了预测。结果表明:2000—2023年我国水害事故发生起数及其死亡率呈阶梯式递减,与原煤产量呈现负相关趋势;重特大水害事故的分布具有明显时空特征,东北、华北、华南等地最为严重,且集中分布在每年的3月—5月、7月—8月,每日的9:00—12:00;我国煤矿水害类型多种多样,最为高发的是老空水害,平均死亡人数最多的为地表洪水;通过Holt模型预测2024年水害百万吨死亡率为0.00133,原煤产量为49.68亿t,水害事故导致的死亡人数为6~7人;2025年百万吨死亡率为0.00066,原煤产量为51.13亿t,水害事故导致的死亡人数为3~4人。Through sorting out the data of coal mine accidents in China from 2000 to 2023 from National Mine Safety Administration and other official channels,this study makes a statistical analysis on the data of water disaster accidents,studies the evolution law and trend of water disaster accidents in China since the 21st century,the distribution characteristics and the causes behind the major water disasters,and predicts the situation of water disaster accidents in coal mines in 2024 and 2025.The results show that the number and death rate of water disaster accidents in China from 2000 to 2023 show a step decline and a negative correlation trend with raw coal production;the distribution of major water disasters has obvious temporal and spatial characteristics,with the most serious accidents in Northeast,North and South China,and concentrated in March to May and July to August every year,from 9:00 to 12:00 every day;there are various types of water damage in coal mines in China,the most frequent is goaf water damage,and the most average death toll is surface flood;the Holt model predicts that in 2024,the death rate of water damage per million tons is 0.00133,the raw coal production is 4.968 billion tons,and the death toll caused by water damage accidents is 6-7;in 2025,the death rate of one million tons is 0.00066,the raw coal production is 5.113 billion tons,and the death toll caused by water disasters is 3 to 4.

关 键 词：煤矿水害 水害事故 统计分析 演化趋势 Holt模型 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]