中国减污降碳协同增效研究:现状、问题及展望  

Research on China’s synergistic effeciency of pollution and carbon reduction:Current status,issues,and prospects

作　　者：段梅 李宇 崔连标[2] DUAN Mei;LI Yu;CUI Lianbiao(Book and Information Center,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu 233030,Anhui,China;School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu 233030,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学图书与信息中心,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《河南理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期26-34,共9页Journal of Henan Polytechnic University:Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72374001);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974001);安徽省高校杰出青年科研项目(2022AH020048);安徽财经大学校级科研项目(ACKYC23032)。

摘　　要：作为新时期中国环境治理的重要内容之一,减污降碳协同增效引起了学术界的广泛关注,但鲜有学者对此展开必要回顾。本文从理论机理、潜力测算、模型方法和政策措施等对减污降碳文献进行全面系统梳理,揭示中国减污降碳协同增效研究的进展和不足,并提出未来研究方向。研究结果发现:第一,现有减污降碳研究大都聚焦于温室气体与大气污染物的协同控制,对水、土、固废等污染物考察不足;第二,减污降碳协同潜力涉及众多不确定性,但鲜有学者系统讨论不确定性对减污降碳协同增效作用机理和影响途径;第三,可计算一般均衡模型是减污降碳不确定性分析的有力工具之一,但面向中国经济运行规律和污染物排放特征的相关模型有待开发完善;第四,减污降碳协同政策体系主要考虑正向协同,对负向协同导致的回弹效应关注不足。展望未来,中国需将气、土、固废和温室气体纳入统一分析框架,重点关注减污降碳协同涉及的多源不确定性及其影响机理,同时开发适用于协同效应不确定性分析的量化评估模型,为构建稳健性减污降碳政策体系提供方法论和科学依据。As one of the important contents of China’s environmental governance in the new era,the synergistic efficiency of pollution reduction and carbon reduction has attracted extensive attention from academics,but few scholars have conducted the necessary review.This paper provides a comprehensive and systematic review of the literature on pollution reduction and carbon reduction in terms of theoretical mechanism,potential measurement,modeling methodology and policy measures,reveals the progress and shortcomings of China’s pollution reduction and carbon synergism research,and proposes the direc-tion for future research.It is found that:first,most of the existing studies on pollution reduction and car-bon reduction focus on the synergistic control of greenhouse gases and air pollutants,and there is not enough research on water,soil,solid waste and other pollutants;second,the synergistic potential of pol-lution reduction and carbon reduction involves a lot of uncertainties,but few scholars have systematically discussed the mechanism and influence pathways of uncertainties on synergistic effect of pollution reduc-tion and carbon reduction;third,the Computable General Equilibrium Model is one of the powerful tools for the analysis of uncertainties on pollution reduction and carbon reduction,but the related model ori-ented to China’s economic operation law and pollutant emission characteristics needs to be developed and perfected;last,the synergistic policy system of pollution reduction and carbon reduction mainly con-siders positive synergy,and pays insufficient attention to the rebound effect caused by negative synergy.China needs to incorporate gas,soil,solid waste and greenhouse gases into a unified analytical frame-work,focus on the multi-source uncertainty involved in the synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions and its influence mechanism,and develop quantitative assessment models for the analysis of synergistic uncertainty,in order to provide methodology and scientific basis for the construction

关 键 词：减污降碳 协同增效 不确定性 可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]