基于改进随机响应面法的电-气-热区域综合能源系统概率能量流计算  

Probabilistic energy flow calculation for regional integrated electricity-gas-heat energy systems based on an improved stochastic response surface method

作　　者：沈赋 张宇涛 王健 杨光兵 陈雪鸥 曹旸 翟苏巍 SHEN Fu;ZHANG Yutao;WANG Jian;YANG Guangbing;CHEN Xueou;CAO Yang;ZHAI Suwei(Faculty of Electric Power Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500;Training and Evaluation Center of Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650106,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650217,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学电力工程学院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南电网有限责任公司培训与评价中心,云南昆明650106 [3]云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,云南昆明650217

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2025年第5期69-81,共13页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(52107097);云南省应用基础研究计划项目资助(202101BE070001-061,202201AU070111);昆明理工大学高层次人才平台建设项目资助(KKZ7202004004);云南省兴滇英才支持计划项目资助(KKRD202204021)。

摘　　要：考虑风光出力的相关性及不确定性对电-气-热区域综合能源系统(regional integrated energy systems,RIES)的影响日渐明显,通过对电-气-热RIES概率能量流的分析可直观地反映其运行状态的变化。首先,计及风光出力相关性与随机变量不确定性,建立含风电、光伏的电-气-热RIES能量流计算模型。其次,采用Galerkin投影法优化随机响应面法(stochastic response surface method,SRSM)来求解电-气-热RIES概率能量流,得到各能量流状态变量的概率分布,定量评估光伏出力与风电出力相关性对RIES概率能量流的影响。最后,采用IEEE 30节点电力系统/IEEE 69节点电力系统、20节点热力系统、24节点天然气系统构成电-气-热RIES对所提模型和求解方法进行验证。通过分析光伏出力与风电出力相关性和不确定性对概率能量流的影响,验证所提模型的有效性和适用性以及求解方法的准确性和快速性。As the impact of the correlation and uncertainty of photovoltaic(PV)and wind power generation on electricity-gas-heat regional integrated energy systems(RIES)becomes more pronounced,analyzing the probabilistic energy flow of the electricity-gas-heat RIES can provide an intuitive reflection of its operational state changes.First,considering the correlation between PV and wind power generation and the uncertainty of random variables,an energy flow calculation model for an electricity-gas-heat RIES that includes PV and wind power is established.Then,an stochastic response surface method(SRSM)optimized by the Galerkin projection method is proposed to calculate the RIES energy flow,and the probability distributions of the state variables of the energy flow are obtained to quantitatively assess the impact of the correlation between PV and wind power on the probabilistic energy flow of the RIES.Finally,the proposed model and the solution method are validated using an RIES formed by the IEEE 30-node power system/IEEE 69-node power system,20-node heat system,and 24-node natural gas system.The validity and applicability of the proposed model and the accuracy and speed of the solution method are verified by analyzing the effects of the correlation between PV power and wind power on the probabilistic energy flow.

关 键 词：区域综合能源系统 概率能量流 相关性 随机响应面法 Galerkin投影法 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]