人工智能、数字经济和就业创造  

Artificial Intelligence,Digital Economy,and Job Creation

作　　者：蔡昉[1] CAI Fang(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,100732)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院,北京100732

出　　处：《中国劳动》2025年第1期5-15,共11页China Labor

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国人口转变的独特性、经济影响及政策研究”,批准号:72141310;国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口高质量发展的内涵与实现路径研究”,批准号:23&ZD182。

摘　　要：人工智能和以之作为赋能平台的数字经济发展,既提高生产率进而创造新就业岗位,又以自动化技术的载体如机器人的形式替代劳动者。由于新技术浪潮的性质,这种就业创造和就业破坏之间的适当平衡,不会自然形成。基于研究文献和经验事实,本文总结了几个有关技术对就业冲击的特征化事实:就业往往从生产率较高部门向较低部门逆向转移;同时具有高成本和高收入需求弹性的部门,就业吸纳能力趋于扩大;包括人工智能在内的新技术,具有提高人类能力和替代人类工作两种倾向,“正确的”方向需要政策引导;对生产率进行充分分享,是应对就业冲击和解决劳动者出路问题的终极途径。关于如何促进技术进步与就业扩大之间的兼容、新就业形态承载高质量就业,本文提出以下政策建议:为人工智能这类技术发展确立向善发展的规制底线;完善劳动力市场制度和加强社会保护;利用人工智能平台和技术为实施就业优先政策赋能;推动制度建设以分享技术进步和生产率提高成果。The developments of artificial intelligence(AI)and digital economy empowered by AI platform tend to concurrently enhance productivity and thus create new jobs and replace work through automation(i.g.robots).In light of the properties of new technologies,an appropriate balance between jobs created and destroyed cannot be achieved automatically.Based on theories and empirics,this paper summarizes four stylized facts about how employment responds to technological shocks.One,employment shock may cause a process of reverse shift of labor-namely,from high productivity to low productivity sectors.Two,sectors characterized by both high cost and large income elasticity of demand tend to absorb more workers.Three,AI and other new technologies simultaneously have“right”tendency-strengthening human capacity or“wrong”tendency-replacing human work.The“right”direction should be directed by right policies.Four,sharing productivity is the ultimate solution.As for how to promote employment expansion in technology advancement and to make the new forms of employment high quality typed,the paper proposes suggestions to(1)regulate technologies such as AI to advance for good,(2)strengthen labor market institutions and social protection to maintain workers’bargaining power in labor market,(3)empower proemployment strategy through AI platform,and(4)build institutions to share the prosperity resulting from technological progress and productivity enhancement.

关 键 词：数字经济 就业创造与破坏 新就业形态 高质量就业 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]