恐怖袭击如何影响跨国并购--理论机制与经验证据  

How Does Terrorist Attacks Affect Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions--Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：韩永辉 罗瑞霖[3] 麦炜坤 HAN Yonghui;LUO Ruilin;MAI Weikun

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院 [2]广东省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心广东外语外贸大学基地 [3]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2025年第2期140-158,共19页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球产业链重构对全球经济治理体系的影响及中国应对研究”(21&ZD074);国家自然科学基金项目“产业政策对参与全球价值链的影响研究:理论机制、实证识别与中国方案”(72073037);广东省自然科学基金杰出青年项目“面向全球价值链的产业政策治理研究”(2022B1515020008);深圳市建设中国特色社会主义先行示范区研究中心课题“新发展格局下深圳高水平对外开放研究”(SFQZD2402)。

摘　　要：在全球化时代,跨国威胁事件频发,尤其是恐怖主义袭击事件已严重危害到国家间的正常经贸往来。本文基于2000一2020年137个国家(地区)2877个样本的恐怖袭击伤亡人数和中国企业跨国并购数据,考察恐怖袭击影响中国企业跨国并购的理论机制及作用效应。研究结果表明:东道国恐怖袭击伤亡人数的增加对中国企业跨国并购金额和并购完成情况均有显著的负面效应;这一负面效应通过恶化东道国营商环境、加剧不确定性和抑制民间交流互动三个机制传导,其主要集中在非“一带一路”共建国家,且在有被殖民历史和国内贫富差距较大的国家更显著;但这种影响会随着时间减弱,且存在门槛效应,证明中国企业具有一定的风险适应力和内在韧性,而东道国治理能力的提升也能够缓解这种负面效应。本研究为中国应对恐怖主义风险,维护自身海外利益,保驾护航企业“走出去”,提供了新的政策建议。In the era of globalization,transnational threats are frequent,especially terrorist attacks,which have seriously endangered normal economic relations between countries.Utilizing data on casualties from terrorist attacks and cross-border mergers and acquisitions(M&As)by Chinese enterprises in 137 countries from 2000 to 2020,with a total sample of 2877,this paper examines the theoretical mechanisms and effects of terror-ist attacks on Chinese enterprises'cross-border M&As.The research shows that the in-crease in casualties of terrorist attacks in the host country has a significant negative effect on the amount of cross-border M&As and the completion of M&As of Chinese enterprises.This effect operates through three mechanisms:deterioration of the host country's business environment,heightened uncertainty,and hindrance of civilian exchanges and interac-tions.The impact is primarily concentrated in countries that are not part of"the Belt and Road"initiative,and it is stronger in countries with a history of colonization and greater domestic income inequality.However,the influence diminishes over time and exhibits a threshold effect,indicating that Chinese companies have a certain degree of risk adaptability and inherent resilience,and the improvement of the host country's governance capacity also alleviates this negative effect.This paper provides new policy recommenda-tions for China to respond to terrorism risks,protect its overseas interests,and safeguard the"going global"strategy of its enterprises.

关 键 词：恐怖袭击 跨国并购 “一带一路”倡议 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]