榆林市中长期干旱指标预测研究  

Study on medium and long term drought index prediction in Yulin City

作　　者：白峰境 姬玉珏 Bai Fengjing;Ji Yujue(Yulin City Water Resources Information and Hydrological Survey Center,Yulin 719000,Shaanxi;Yulin Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Engineering Construction Center,Yulin 719000,Shaanxi)

机构地区：[1]榆林市水利信息与水文勘测中心,陕西榆林719000 [2]榆林市水土保持生态工程建设中心,陕西榆林719000

出　　处：《陕西水利》2025年第3期71-73,77,共4页Shaanxi Water Resources

摘　　要：准确可靠的干旱指标预测模型能够提前作出可靠的资源规划方案与管理措施应对极端干旱事件。通过构建分解算法与机器学习模型耦合的干旱指标预测算法库,对榆林市各市县在不同时间尺度下的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)进行预测,探究不同耦合算法在榆林市干旱预测的适用性。可为区域防汛抗旱管理工作提供科学依据。An accurate and reliable drought index prediction model can provide advance planning schemes and management measures for responding to extreme drought events.This study constructs a drought index prediction algorithm library by coupling decomposition algorithms with machine learning models,predicting the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)at different time scales for various counties within Yulin City.It investigates the applicability of different coupled algorithms in drought prediction for Yulin City.The research findings provide a scientific basis for regional flood control and drought management.

关 键 词：干旱指标 中长期 分解信号算法 机器学习 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]