石佛寺水库富营养化评价及风险预测  

Eutrophication Assessment and Risk Prediction of Shifosi Reservoir

作　　者：李长宏 王丽佳 葛秋 祖彪 武暕 Li Changhong;Wang Lijia;Ge Qiu;Zu Biao;Wu Jian(Hydrology Bureau of Liaoning Province,Liaoning 110003,Shenyang;Ecological Environment Monitoring Center of Liaoning Province,Liaoning 110161,Shenyang)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省沈阳水文局,辽宁沈阳110003 [2]辽宁省水文局,辽宁沈阳110003 [3]辽宁省生态环境监测中心,辽宁沈阳110161

出　　处：《陕西水利》2025年第3期104-106,109,共4页Shaanxi Water Resources

摘　　要：基于2015年~2023年的监测数据,运用综合营养状态指数法,对辽宁省沈阳市石佛寺水库三个监测断面的富营养化状态及其随时间变化的趋势进行深入评价。经过详细分析,研究结果表明:在2015年~2023年的观测期间,石佛寺水库的营养状态指数呈现出相对稳定的状态,并未呈现出明显的变化趋势。综合营养指数在53.47~63.13区间内变化,说明石佛寺水库已经到达了轻度富营养化至中度富营养化状态。运用一元线性回归分析法,对五年内各断面的综合营养状态指数值进行科学预测。经过对比分析,预测结果与2023年实际监测数据之间的偏差较小,表明预测方法具有较高的可靠性。在此基础上,进一步采用累积概率密度模型,对石佛寺水库的富营养化风险进行深入预测。预测结果显示,石佛寺水库的富营养化风险概率呈现出逐年上升的趋势,这一趋势应当引起高度重视,并采取相应的整治措施加以应对。Based on the monitoring data from 2015 to 2023,the eutrophication status of three monitoring sections of Shifosi Reservoir in Shenyang City,Liaoning Province and its trend with time were evaluated by using the comprehensive nutritional status index method.After detailed analysis,the results show that during the observation period from 2015 to 2023,the nutritional status index of Shifosi Reservoir showed a relatively stable state,and did not show a significant trend.The comprehensive nutrition index changes in the range of 53.47~63.13,indicating that Shifosi Reservoir has reached a state of mild eutrophication to moderate eutrophication.Using a linear regression analysis method,the comprehensive nutritional status index values of each section within 5 years were scientifically predicted.After comparative analysis,the deviation between the prediction results and the actual monitoring data in 2023 is small,indicating that the prediction method has high reliability.On this basis,the cumulative probability density model was further used to predict the eutrophication risk of Shifosi Reservoir.The prediction results show that the probability of eutrophication risk in Shifosi Reservoir shows an increasing trend year by year.This trend should arouse our attention and take corresponding measures to deal with i.

关 键 词：富营养化 风险预测 累积概率密度函数 石佛寺水库 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]