长时间强度维持型台风的持续性特征分析  

Analysis on the maintenance of long-term intensity-maintaining typhoons

作　　者：李启华[1] 王钰琦 史小康 施东雷 殷蕾 李森[1] 陆汉城 刘健文 LI QiHua;WANG YuQi;SHI XiaoKang;SHI DongLei;YIN Lei;LI Sen;LU HanCheng;LIU JianWen(Chinese People's Liberation Army 93213 Unit,Beijing 100085,China;School of Environment,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China;Institutes of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense and Technology,Nanjing 211101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军93213部队,北京100085 [2]中国地质大学环境学院,武汉430074 [3]南京邮电大学,南京210023 [4]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,南京211101

出　　处：《地球物理学报》2025年第3期813-826,共14页Chinese Journal of Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42005007,42305004,42105013)资助.

摘　　要：利用近43年的历史台风资料,分析提出“长时间强度维持型台风”的定量判据及其理论依据,进而构建长时间强度维持型台风个例研究数据集,并对该类台风季节平均大气背景场的年际相关性进行了分析,可为深入研究此类台风的发生发展机理提供参考,主要结论如下:(1)提出了分别基于台风最大风速和最低气压的广义定义,计算台风长时间强度维持时间的两种方法.结果表明,该两种计算方法对于筛选长时间强度维持型台风各有特色,但它们维持时间的累计频次90%所对应的维持时间均为54 h.(2)给出了长时间强度维持型台风的两个定量判据:一是致灾性方面,台风最大强度需达到强台风以上,即最大风速≥41 m·s^(-1);二是罕见性方面,台风的广义最大强度维持时间需达54 h以上.根据该判据筛选得到含有71个台风的个例研究数据集,其中仅满足最大风速作为判据的有11个,仅满足最低气压作为判据的有12个,同时满足的有48个.(3)夏季风槽增强和东伸、低层西风和高层东风垂直切变异常、以及偏弱的西太副高有利于增大台风强度的维持时间;热带西北太平洋西北区域不利的垂直运动和水汽条件通过适当抑制强台风的持续发展,而使其倾向于呈现“U型”强度演变特征.Based on analysis of historical tropical cyclone database in the past 43 years,the present study proposes a quantitative criterion and theoretical basis of“long-term intensity-maintaining typhoons”,constructs a set of typical historical cases for the type of typhoons,and analyzes their interannual relationship with respect to the seasonal atmospheric background fields,which may provide a reference for further research on the occurrence and development mechanism of such typhoons.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Two types of definitions of the long-term intensity-maintaining typhoons are compared based on the maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near the typhoon centers,respectively.The results show that these two calculation methods have individual characteristics,but in both methods the maintenance time at cumulative frequency of 90%is 54 hours.(2)Quantitative criterion for long-term intensity-maintaining typhoons is provided according to two aspects.Firstly,in respect of disaster causing ability,the intensity of typhoon is required to reach“severe”level,with wind speed threshold of 41 m·s−1.Secondly,in respect of rarity,duration within the range of maximum typhoon intensity is required to exceed 54 hours.(3)Enhancement and eastward extension of the summer monsoon trough,anomalous low-level westerly and high-level easterly vertical wind shear,and weakened western Pacific subtropical high are beneficial for increasing the maintenance of typhoon intensity.Unfavorable vertical motion and water vapor conditions in the northwest region of may suppress the sustained development of strong typhoons to a proper extent,which contributes to formation of the U-shaped intensity evolution.

关 键 词：长时间维持 台风 台风广义最大强度 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]