社会融资规模中介有效性分析:基于三种不同货币政策中介目标的经验对比  

A Study on the Effectiveness of Social Financing Scale:Based on the Empirical Comparison of Three Different Intermediation Targets of Monetary Policy

作　　者：田方钰 刘达禹[2] 刘文轩 TIAN Fang-yu;LIU Da-yu;LIU Wen-xuan(College of Northeast Asian Studies,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《经济问题》2025年第3期81-91,共11页On Economic Problems

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“跨周期和逆周期结合下的金融安全维护研究”(22JJD790066);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“央行沟通语境分析、通胀预期形成机制与中央银行目标优化研究”(2024T170338)。

摘　　要：从关联性、规则性和有效性三方面系统评估了我国货币政策中介目标的调控效能,并在比较分析中深入评价了社会融资规模这一新型货币政策中介目标的宏观调控能力,以期为增强经济发展韧性和确保经济运行在合理区间提供新型政策储备。研究结论如下:首先,我国货币政策调控实践具有较强的惯性,更强调对通货膨胀变动的监管,对实际产出变化的关注较少。其次,与广义货币供给和名义利率相比,社会融资规模中介与实际经济目标之间的关联度更强,对经济增长和通货膨胀有着更积极有效的影响。再次,现阶段适度宽松且积极的政策取向有助于经济摆脱增速下行风险,同时又不会引发过度通胀现象,可以作为未来一定时期内宏观调控的主体基调。最后,相较于广义货币供给和名义利率两种货币政策中介目标,社会融资规模中介是管理实体经济危机的占优选择。因此,适度调整社会融资规模增速不失为当下经济弱回升时期下宏观调控的有益尝试。This paper systematically evaluates the regulation efficiency of China’s monetary policy intermediary target from three aspects of relevance,regularity as well as effectiveness,and further evaluates the macro-control ability of social financing scale,a new monetary intermediary'target,in order to provide a new policy reserve for enhancing the resilience of economy and ensuring the economic growth rate operate in a reasonable range.The research conclusions are as follows:Firstly,China’s monetary policy regulation practice has a strong inertial character,more emphasis on the supervision of inflation changes,less attention to output fluctuations.Secondly,compared with the broad money supply and nominal interest rate,the correlation between social financing scale and actual economic targets is stronger,and the social financial scale has a more positive and effective impact on economic growth and inflation.Thirdly,the loose and positive policy is more conducive to the macro-economy to get rid of the contraction risk without causing excessive inflation.Finally,compared with the broad money supply and the nominal interest rate,the social financing scale is the dominant choice for managing the real economic crisis.Therefore,a moderate adjustment of social financing scale can be regarded as the dominant choice for macro-control in the current stage of weak economic recovery.

关 键 词：社会融资规模 货币政策中介目标 货币政策传导机制 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]