若尔盖湿地区域径流变化特征及其影响因素分析  

Variation characteristics of runoff and its influencing factors in Zoige Wetland

作　　者：齐冬梅 李跃清[2] 周长艳[1,2] 陈超 任倩[1,2] 刘佳[1,2,3,4] QI Dongmei;LI Yueqing;ZHOU Changyan;CHEN Chao;REN Qian;LIU Jia(Sichuan Provincial Climate Center,Chengdu 610072,China;Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorology Administration/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气候中心,四川成都610072 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072 [3]中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2025年第1期14-29,共16页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U2342209);高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放课题(PAEKL-2023-K06);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0105);四川省自然科学基金项目(2022NSFSC0230);中国气象局青年创新团队项目“青藏高原气候变化及其影响”(CMA2023QN16);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42205195)资助。

摘　　要：若尔盖湿地是黄河上游重要的水源供给区和水源涵养地。在气候变暖的背景下,若尔盖湿地水资源状况发生了显著变化并引起了广泛关注,深入了解若尔盖湿地水资源变化及其影响因素,可为若尔盖湿地水资源保护和应对气候变化策略提供理论支撑。基于黄河上游若尔盖水文站观测的月平均流量资料、若尔盖湿地及周边地区气象台站逐日观测资料以及ERA-Interim的月平均再分析资料,探究了黄河上游若尔盖水文站实测径流的变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明:2008年之前研究区年、季平均流量均呈减少趋势,2008年以后呈增加趋势。降水量先减后增是主要原因,气温显著上升导致积雪融水增加,以及蒸散发量变化也具有重要作用。季风环流带来的西南风水汽输送对研究区径流变化有着重要影响,若尔盖湿地上空南、西边界的水汽流入量及水汽净收支量和年(夏季)降水量均呈显著正相关,当高原南侧反气旋式环流加强(减弱),同时华南、西太平洋地区的反气旋式环流加强(减弱),来自南海、西太平洋和孟加拉湾的水汽沿高原南缘转为西南风水汽输送加强(减弱)时,若尔盖湿地区域维持异常的偏西南(偏东)流场与水汽辐合(辐散)区,造成了若尔盖湿地夏季降水量偏多(偏少),最终引起该区域径流量增加(减少)。As an important water conservation area of the upper Yellow River,the Zoige Wetland is crucial in maintaining the stability of the plateau ecosystem and regional climate.Under the background of climate warming,the water resources in Zoige Wetland has changed significantly,which has caused a series of ecological and environmental problems,and further threatened the ecological security and economic development of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.At present,the water resource status of Zoige Wetland has been widely concerned.However,many scientific problems about the water resources in this region have not been solved yet.For example,what are the law of climate change and water resources change in Zoige Wetland in recent decades?What are the impact process and impact mechanism of the climate change on the water resources in this region?To solve these problems systematically,based on the observation data at meteorological stations and the hydrological stations in Zoige Wetland,and the ERA-Interim monthly mean reanalysis dataset from 1981 to 2015,this paper research on the regional climate response characteristics and their impact on runoff in Zoige Wetland,by adopting the following research methods,including observation analysis and theoretical research.For the first step,this paper analyze the basic climate change characteristics of runoff in Zoige Wetland.On this basis,we explore the impact process of climate change on runoff in Zoige Wetland.The research work can provide theoretical support for water resources protection and coping strategies of climate change in Zoige Wetland.The results show that,the annual and seasonal average runoff in Zoige Wetland showed a downward trend before 2008 and showed an increased trend after 2008,and the monthly average runoff showed a“bimodal”distribution,with the runoff mainly concentrated in the flood season during 1981 to 2015.Precipitation is the main factor to impact the runoff in Zoige Wetland,and summer precipitation having the most significant impact.Th

关 键 词：水资源 径流 若尔盖湿地 气候变化 水汽收支 大气环流 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]