北极季克西地表热环境时空变化及驱动力分析  

Analysis of spatial and temporal variations and drivers of climate characteristics in the Arctic city of Tiksi

作　　者：闫庆凯 张泽[1,2] 李向龙 孙继欣 ZHANG Andrei 张圣嵘 YAN Qingkai;ZHANG Ze;LI Xianglong;SUN Jixin;ZHANG Andrei;ZHANG Shengrong(College of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China;China-Russia Joint Laboratory for Cold Regions Engineering and Environment/Permafrost Institute,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学土木与交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]东北林业大学中俄寒区工程与环境联合实验室/冻土研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2025年第1期57-70,共14页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：黑龙江省重点研发计划项目(指导类)(GZ20220095);国家科技基础资源调查专项(2022FY100702)资助。

摘　　要：过去几十年,全球变暖在北极地区表现出显著的“北极放大效应”,对多年冻土构成了极大威胁。本研究聚焦于北极城市季克西,探讨了全球变暖背景下地表热环境的动态变化及其对多年冻土的影响。首先,基于气象站的实测数据,统计了季克西1976—2022年的年平均气温、年冻融频次、年度冻结指数、年度融化指数的长时序变化;其次,基于Landsat遥感数据反演了2000—2021年季克西地区的地表温度和土地覆盖变化,并通过地理探测器方法分析了影响地表温度的主要驱动因素。研究结果表明,1976—2022年间,年平均气温以0.07℃·a^(-1)的速度增加;年度冻结指数以-20.98℃·d·a^(-1)的速度下降,年度融化指数以7.11℃·d·a^(-1)的速度上升。2000—2021年间,7—8月平均地表温度平均上升了3.14℃。地理探测器分析显示,土壤湿度和建筑指数对地表温度的解释力最高,高程、植被指数等因素也有重要影响。长期地温监测数据显示,不同深度的地温均呈现升温趋势,但随着深度增加,升温速率逐渐减小。机场附近的热融湖塘面积持续扩张,进一步响应了多年冻土的广泛退化。本研究为理解北极地区气候变暖对多年冻土区的影响提供了科学依据,可为北极航道沿岸基础设施的规划和环境保护提供理论和技术支持。In recent decades,global warming has caused a notable“Arctic amplification effect”in the Arctic region,which poses a significant threat to permafrost.This study focuses on the Tiksi region in the Arctic and investigates the dynamic changes in the surface thermal environment and their impact on permafrost in the context of global warming.First,based on measured data from meteorological stations,long-term trends in the annual average temperature,freeze-thaw frequency,freezing index,and melting index from 1976 to 2022 were statistically analyzed.Additionally,using Landsat remote sensing data,changes in surface temperature and land cover in the Tiksi region from 2000 to 2021 were retrieved.The main driving factors influencing surface temperature were analyzed using the geographic detector method.The results show that from 1976 to 2022,the annual average temperature increased at a rate of 0.07℃·a^(-1),the annual freezing index decreased at a rate of-20.98℃·d·a^(-1),and the annual melting index increased at a rate of 7.11℃·d·a^(-1).From 2000 to 2021,the average surface temperature in July and August rose by 3.14℃.Geographic detector analysis revealed that soil moisture and the built-up index had the highest explanatory power for surface temperature,with elevation and vegetation index also playing significant roles.Long-term ground temperature monitoring indicates that ground temperatures at different depths have shown warming trends,though the rate of warming decreases with depth.The area of thermal melt ponds near the airport has continuously expanded,further indicating widespread permafrost degradation.This study provides scientific insights into the impact of climate change on permafrost in the Arctic and offers theoretical and technical support for infrastructure planning and environmental protection along Arctic shipping routes.

关 键 词：气候变化 多年冻土 北极 季克西 土地利用 地表温度 

分 类 号：P642.14[天文地球—工程地质学] X16[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]