1961—2022年黑龙江省冬季气温特征及极寒天气分析  

Analysis of winter air temperature characteristics and extreme cold weather in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2022

作　　者：孙鹏飞[1,2] 曲哲 张磊 张礼宝[4] 吴岩[4] 谢玉静[4] 李兴权[4] 李瑶[5] SUN Pengfei;QU Zhe;ZHANG Lei;ZHANG Libao;WU Yan;XIE Yujing;LI Xingquan;LI Yao(Key Open Laboratory of Northeast Cold Vortex Research,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166,China;Yichun Meteorological Bureau,Yichun 153000,Heilongjiang,China;Shanxi Meteorological Observatory,Taiyuan 030000,China;Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory,Harbin 150030,China;Daxing’anling Meteorological Bureau,Jiagedaqi 165002,Heilongjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]伊春市气象局,黑龙江伊春153000 [3]山西省气象台,山西太原030000 [4]黑龙江省气象台,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [5]大兴安岭地区气象局,黑龙江加格达奇165002

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2025年第1期85-97,共13页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：黑龙江省2022年度省重点研发计划项目(定向委托、创新基地)(GA22C003);伊春市重点科技计划项目(R2024-2);黑龙江省气象局科技创新发展项目(HQ2023003,HQ2023044)资助。

摘　　要：为探究黑龙江省冬季气温变化和极寒天气特征,应对极端气候事件,选取黑龙江省84个国家气象站1961/1962—2022/2023年冬季逐日气温数据和ERA5再分析数据,利用天气学和统计学等方法,分析了黑龙江省冬季气温的时空分布特征,对发生极端气温时的大气环流进行探讨,并筛选出对冬季气温有较好指示意义的大气环流指数。结果表明:黑龙江省冬季平均气温和极端最低气温随纬度呈南高北低分布,且均呈升温趋势,极寒天气呈减少趋势,但极寒天气的最长持续时间和最大影响范围并没有明显的减少趋势。极寒天气主要发生在黑龙江北部,其中大兴安岭占总极寒日数的68.7%,小兴安岭占27.6%,其他地区仅占3.7%。极寒天气多发生在1月,占冬季极寒天气总数的56.9%,12月次之(24.5%),2月最少(18.6%)。冬季平均气温和极寒站次在20世纪80年代发生突变,而极端最低气温在20世纪90年代发生突变,与北极涛动(AO)、东亚大槽强度以及秋季北极海冰面积的突变较为一致。黑龙江省冬季气温主要受极地环流影响,极涡偏南可能导致黑龙江省出现持续时间较长的极寒天气。黑潮区海温指数(KCSST)、东亚槽强度指数(EATI)和斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型指数(SCA)与黑龙江省冬季气温相关性较好,对预测未来极端气温变化有较好的指示意义。In order to explore the characteristics of winter temperature changes and extreme cold weather in Heilongjiang Province,cope with extreme climate events,daily temperature data and ERA5 reanalysis data from 84 national meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province during 1961/1962—2022/2023 were selected,and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of multi-year temperature in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed by means of synoptic and statistical methods.the atmospheric circulation during extreme temperature was discussed,and the atmospheric circulation index which had better indication of winter temperature was selected.The results show that the winter mean temperature and extreme minimum temperature in Heilongjiang Province are higher in the south and lower in the north,and both show a warming trend,and the extreme cold weather shows a decreasing trend,but the longest duration and maximum influence range of the extreme cold weather have no obvious decreasing trend.The extreme cold weather mainly occurred in the north of Heilongjiang Province,where the Greater Khingan Mountains accounted for 68.7%of the total extreme cold days,followed by the Lesser Khingan Mountains 27.6%,and other regions only 3.7%.Most of the extreme cold weather occurred in January,accounting for 56.9%of the total number of extreme cold weather in winter,followed by December(24.5%),and February(18.6%).The abrupt changes in winter mean temperature and extreme cold station occurred in the 1980s,while the abrupt changes in extreme minimum temperature occurred in the 1990s,which are more consistent with the abrupt changes in the Arctic Oscillation,the East Asian trough intensity,and the Arctic sea ice area in autumn.The winter temperature in Heilongjiang Province is mainly affected by the polar circulation,and the southerly polar vortex may lead to a long duration of extremely cold weather in Heilongjiang Province.The Kuroshio Current SST Index,East Asian Trough Intensity Index and Scandinavian Pattern have good correlation with wi

关 键 词：黑龙江省冬季气温 极寒天气 极涡 大气环流指数 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]