西藏定日6.8级地震灾区冰湖分布、变化与危害冰湖识别  

Distribution and changes of glacial lakes,potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the MS 6.8 earthquake-stricken area of Tingri,Xizang

作　　者：吴宇宏 聂勇 李素菊 王文[1] 谷昌军 WU Yuhong;NIE Yong;LI Suju;WANG Wen;GU Changjun(Mountain Science Data Center,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610299,China;National Disaster Reduction Center of China,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100124,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所山地科学数据中心,四川成都610299 [2]应急管理部国家减灾中心,北京100124 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2025年第1期187-198,共12页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：西藏科技厅重点研发计划项目(XZ202301ZY0016G);国家自然科学基金项目(42171086)资助。

摘　　要：2025年1月7日,西藏自治区日喀则市定日县发生MS 6.8级地震,造成重大人员伤亡和严重经济损失。此次地震灾区是喜马拉雅历史冰湖溃决灾害最严重的区域之一,为防范此次强震可能诱发的冰湖溃决灾害,本研究基于Landsat影像和研究区历史冰湖灾害事件数据,分析了灾区冰湖分布和变化特征,从冰湖类型和规模两个指标,识别具有潜在溃决风险的冰湖并分析其地震前后的变化。研究结果表明:(1)定日地震6度烈度区内2022年共有463个冰湖,总面积(43.70±5.01) km^(2),总水量达10.05×10^(8) m^(3);(2)1992年、2000年、2009年和2022年4个时段冰湖都呈现扩张的状态;(3)初步筛选出17个具有潜在溃决风险的冰湖,这些冰湖到目前为止并未发生溃决,在地震前后也未观测到明显的变化,部分冰湖在2022—2025年间仍在扩张,建议重点关注并开展持续监测研究,如检测到溃决信号,应及时采取相应措施,降低地震诱发的次生灾害风险及其影响。On January 7,2025,Dingri County in Shigatze,Xizang(Tibet)experienced a significant earthquake that measured 6.8 on the Surface-wave Magnitude Scale.This seismic event resulted in considerable casualties and extensive economic damage.The region is known for its vulnerability to glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs),underscoring the importance of understanding and mitigating the risks associated with such devastating occurrences.In light of the potential for glacial lake outbursts following the earthquake,our study utilizes advanced Landsat imagery and Geographic Information System(GIS)methodologies to examine the distribution and evolving characteristics of glacial lakes in the affected area.By analyzing various indicators related to glacial lake types and sizes,we have identified glacial lakes that pose significant risks,drawing on historical records of glacial lake disasters in the region.The key findings of our analysis are as follows:(1)In the 6-degree intensity zone of the Tingri earthquake,we identified 463 glacial lakes in 2022,covering an area of approximately(43.70±5.01)km^(2),with an estimated total water volume of 10.05×10^(8) m^(3);(2)Our data indicates a consistent increase in the number of glacial lakes over four distinct time periods—1992,2000,2009,and 2022,which raises concerns about their stability;(3)Notably,we identified 17 glacial lakes deemed potentially hazardous.Although these lakes have not previously experienced outburst events,some have continued to expand from 2022 to 2025.While no major changes were observed in these glacial lakes from late 2024 through the first two months following the earthquake in 2025,we recommend ongoing monitoring.If any warnings or signs of potential outbursts appear,prompt and appropriate interventions should be initiated to reduce secondary disaster risks caused by the earthquake,thereby minimizing their negative impacts on both the local community and infrastructure.

关 键 词：定日地震 冰湖溃决洪水 气候变化 喜马拉雅 遥感监测 

分 类 号：P343.63[天文地球—水文科学]