G219线温霍交通廊道雪崩事件重建与抛程方法适用性分析  

Reconstruction of avalanche events in the Wenquan-Khorgas traffic corridor on the G219 highway and applicability analysis of the range throwing approach

作　　者：姚森木 刘杰 郭强 杨治纬 王斌 谢良甫[1,2,3] 孙锡亮 YAO Senmu;LIU Jie;GUO Qiang;YANG Zhiwei;WANG Bin;XIE Liangfu;SUN Xiliang(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory for Safety and Health of Transportation Infrastructure in Alpine and High-altitude Mountainous Areas,Urumqi 830000,China;Xinjiang Transportation Planning,Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd,Urumqi 830006,China;Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Traffic Construction Administration Project Execution Division II,Urumqi 830049,China;School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学建筑工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆高寒高海拔山区交通基础设施安全与健康重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [3]新疆交通规划勘察设计研究院有限公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830006 [4]新疆维吾尔自治区交通建设管理局项目执行二处,新疆乌鲁木齐830049 [5]新疆农业大学交通运输与物流工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2025年第1期213-226,共14页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：交通行业重点科技项目(2022-ZD6-090);新疆交通科技项目(2122-ZD-006);新疆交投集团2021年度“揭榜挂帅”科技项目(ZKXFWCG2022060004);新疆交通设计院科技研发项目(KY2023110701,KY2023110702)资助。

摘　　要：雪崩抛程对于高寒山区公路安全风险评估极为重要,但不同计算方法针对特定区域的适用性研究尚显不足。本研究基于空地一体化现场调查数据,经相似度评估后,利用RAMMS-AVALANCHE模型重建了中国西天山切特阿克苏沟2023—2024年冬末的5处雪崩事件,并进一步对比分析了雪崩抛程的RAMMS-AVALANCHE数值模拟结果和各类理论计算结果。5处雪崩数值模拟结果与现场实际最终相似度分别为84.6%、83.1%、85.9%、87.4%和93.3%,表明RAMMS-AVALANCHE数值模拟在重建雪崩事件方面具有显著优势。以平均绝对误差百分比(MAPE)作为评判标准,数值模拟法最符合现场实际,准确性最高,MAPE为4.93%;tanα作图法次之,MAPE为6.64%;等效摩擦力法与双倾角作图法准确性较低,MAPE分别为6.90%和8.99%。数值模拟法计算最精准,且适用于多种雪崩;tanα作图法简便易行,适用于单一雪崩路径无分流汇流现象的雪崩;双倾角作图法和等效摩擦力法仍需要在因变量选择、更多特征参数引入及参数计算方法本地化等方面加以改进以提高区域适用性。研究结果可满足高寒山区公路选线和防治措施位置选择的需求,并为G219线温霍交通廊道的基础设施建设和运营安全提供技术支持。Avalanches are critical natural hazards in alpine regions,characterized by their unpredictability,rapid movement,and immense destructive power.These events often disrupt transportation corridors,endanger lives,and significantly hinder sustainable economic development in mountainous areas.For infrastructure safety and disaster risk mitigation,understanding avalanche dynamics,particularly throw distances,is essential.This study investigates avalanche events and computational methods for assessing throw distances in the Wenquan-Khorgas traffic corridor along the G219 highway,located in the Chet Aksu Gully of the West Tien Shan Mountains,China.Five major avalanches from late winter 2023—2024 were reconstructed using the RAMMS-AVALANCHE numerical model.Additionally,the applicability of four methods for throw distance calculations—RAMMS numerical simulation,tanαmapping,bi-inclination mapping,and equivalent friction methods—was evaluated to identify the most suitable approach for the region.The study area features steep U-shaped valleys,where snow instability is heightened by topographic variability,high winter precipitation,and specific snowpack conditions.Field surveys revealed 89 avalanche occurrences in the region,with snow throw distances ranging from 70 meters to 1900 meters.Five representative avalanches were selected for detailed analysis.High-resolution digital elevation models(DEMs)were obtained through drone surveys,and meteorological data were collected using automated monitoring stations.These datasets served as inputs for RAMMS numerical simulations.Validation of these models was performed by comparing simulation results with field observations of avalanche shapes,movement directions,and deposition volumes.The RAMMS model achieved high similarity scores ranging from 84.6%to 93.3%,confirming its reliability in accurately reconstructing avalanche dynamics in complex terrains.Comparative analysis of throw distance calculation methods revealed distinct advantages and limitations. The RAMMS numerical sim

关 键 词：G219线温霍交通廊道 雪崩动力学 RAMMS数值模拟 雪崩事件重建 雪崩抛程计算 

分 类 号：P426.636[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]