气候变化条件下新疆额尔齐斯河流域洪水风险评价  

Risk analysis of floods in the Irtysh River basin,Xinjiang under climate change conditions

作　　者：刘涵[1,2] 吕海深 朱永华[1,2] 陈仁升[3] 赵文龙 吴卓珺 LIU Han;LÜHaishen;ZHU Yonghua;CHEN Rensheng;ZHAO Wenlong;WU Zhuojun(National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Qilian Alpine Ecology and Hydrology Research Station,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,黑河上游生态-水文试验研究站,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2025年第1期227-238,共12页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510504)资助。

摘　　要：在气候变暖影响下,干旱区河流洪水风险显著提升。本文在额尔齐斯河富蕴县城段及以上河道采用融雪径流模型(SRM)预测径流,耦合了MIKE 11、MIKE 21 FM模型,研究未来额尔齐斯河上游流域洪水风险。利用额尔齐斯河上游三个水文站实测数据率定模型参数,采用CMIP6的三个气候模式两种未来气候变化情景(SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)数据模拟额尔齐斯河流域未来的洪水风险要素,输出了洪水风险区划图。结果表明:2025—2065年,两种未来气候变化情景均显示额尔齐斯河流域洪水风险防治范围为河道北岸,原因是河道北侧地势比河道南侧低,洪水向北侧漫溢;洪水风险从东南向西北逐渐降低;SSP5-8.5情景下的洪水风险比SSP2-4.5情景更为严峻,高风险区域面积比SSP2-4.5多7.2%,中风险区域面积比SSP2-4.5少7.7%,差异体现在县城中部地区,SSP5-8.5情景下该区域为高风险,SSP2-4.5情景下为中风险。Under the influence of climate warming,the flood risk of rivers in arid regions has increased significantly.In order to study the future flood risk of Fuyun County on the banks of the Irtysh River,this paper uses SRM to predict runoff in the upper reaches of Fuyun County,and couples the MIKE 11 and MIKE 21 FM models in Fuyun County to explore the flood risk of Fuyun County under future climate scenarios.In this study,the SRM model parameters of the runoff area were calibrated by using the measured data of three hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Irtysh River,the measured snow area data and the temperature and precipitation data to calibrate the SRM model parameters of the runoff area,the DEM data and the measured river section data to construct the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model of the evolution area,the MIKE 11 coupled MIKE 21 FM model in the oasis area by using the dem data,the measured river section data and the underlying surface roughness,and the three climate models of CMIP6 and two future climate change scenarios(SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)datadriven model,which completed the simulation of future flood elements in Fuyun County,and finally made a flood risk zoning map.The results show that:(1)The flood risk prevention and control scope of Fuyun County in the Irtysh River Basin is mainly on the north bank of the river.The south side of the river is high and the north side is low,and the width of the river channel in three areas in the central and western regions of the county is significantly smaller than before,and the river runoff is prone to inundation when the river runoff increases.The simulation results of the coupled model show that from 2025 to 2065,the once-in-a-century flood under two different scenarios will be inundated on the north bank of the river.Among the inundation areas,more than 90%of the areas have a maximum water depth of more than 1 m,more than 60%of the areas have been inundated for more than half of the time,and more than 75%of the areas have reached the high-risk level.(2)The floo

关 键 词：额尔齐斯河 洪水风险要素 MIKE模型 SRM CMIP6 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] P331.1[天文地球—水文科学]