1961—2020年天山地区冰川物质平衡及冰川径流模拟  

Modeling on glacier mass balance and glacier runoff in the Tianshan region of China from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：范蕊谊 孙美平[1,2,4] 王荣军 姚晓军 王姝[1,4] 牛舒婷 王国宇[5] FAN Ruiyi;SUN Meiping;WANG Rongjun;YAO Xiaojun;WANG Shu;NIU Shuting;WANG Guoyu(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis,Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730070,China;School of Water Resources and Environment,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]甘肃省绿洲资源环境与可持续发展重点实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [5]中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院,北京100083

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2025年第1期239-254,共16页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42161027,42001068,42361022);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(25JRRA502)资助。

摘　　要：天山冰川融水是下游绿洲生态和社会经济发展的命脉。显著增温使天山冰川消融加剧,这种变化深刻改变了区域的水资源配置,定量评估其变化显得尤为重要。本文聚焦天山地区冰川,通过多源数据(冰川编目和ASTER物质平衡数据)对模型参数进行更精准的集成约束,利用月尺度的度日模型对天山地区的冰川物质平衡及冰川径流进行了模拟。结果显示:1961—2020年天山冰川物质平衡呈亏损状态(-0.36 m w.e.·a^(-1)),以1990年为界,1990年之后冰川物质平衡较之前减少0.15 m w.e.·a^(-1),在更高的物质亏损驱动下,致使1990年之后年均冰川径流量增加5.91×108 m^(3)(10.58%);对天山冰川变化的敏感性分析发现气温上升0.5℃,冰川物质平衡减少0.16 m w.e.·a^(-1),而降水增加10%,冰川物质平衡增加0.03 m w.e.·a^(-1),即天山冰川物质亏损主要归因于气温的升高;最后讨论了近60年大气环流转型对冰川物质平衡的影响,发现天山冰川物质平衡在1990年之前主要受高空气旋控制,空气绝热上升气温下降,使其亏损呈较小状态,而1990年之后受高空反气旋环流控制,加剧了下沉气流绝热增温进而导致天山冰川物质的持续较大亏损。The Tianshan Mountains are the most extensive in the global arid zone,with glaciers developing at high altitudes.The glacial meltwater of the Tianshan Mountains provides valuable freshwater resources for the ecological and socio-economic development of downstream oases.Significant warming has intensified the ablation of Tianshan glaciers,altering their morphology and profoundly changing the regional water allocation.Therefore,quantitative assessment of glacier changes in the Tianshan region was critical.In this paper,focusing on all glaciers in the Tianshan region,we simulated the glacier mass balance and glacier runoff by driving a monthly-scale mass balance model using temperature and precipitation data from ERA5.At the same time,the glacier area data of the Tianshan region from two glacier inventories and the mass balance results from ASTER were used to calibrate and validate the model parameters of individual glaciers.The results showed that the glacier mass balance in the Tianshan region was in a state of deficit from 1961 to 2020,with a multi-year average value of-0.36 m w.e.·a^(-1).With 1990 as the boundary,the average annual glacier mass balance after 1990 was-0.43 m w.e.·a^(-1),which was 0.15 m w.e.·a^(-1) less than before 1990.The Tarim Basin had the most minor glacier mass loss due to the lowest mean annual temperature at the basin scale. In contrast, the Turpan-Hami Basinhad the most severe loss of glacier mass balance due to the highest mean annual temperature and lowest annualprecipitation. Regarding spatial changes in the glacier mass balance, most areas of the Tianshan region were below 0 m w. e.·a^(-1), i. e. , most of the Tianshan region was in a state of mass deficit in the past. However, glaciermass accumulation and smaller deficits were concentrated in the western and central parts of the Tianshan region, while the eastern part faced more severe deficits. Glacier runoff in the Tianshan region increased throughout the study period, with a multi-year average value of 58. 86×108 m^(3). Howe

关 键 词：冰川 物质平衡 径流 大气环流 天山 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]