中国轨道交通产业创新水平测度及障碍因子诊断  

Measurement of Innovation Level and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of Rail Transit Industry of China

作　　者：张曼 梁洁林 薛锋[1,2] Zhang Man;Liang Jielin;Xue Feng(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都611756

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2025年第1期71-82,共12页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目“轨道交通产业发展的阶段性特征统计测度及驱动效应评估研究”(21YJCZH192);四川省社会科学重点研究基地系统科学与企业发展研究中心规划项目“轨道交通产业集群供应链低碳转型升级的路径研究”(Xq23C09);成都市软科学研究项目“基于产业技术路线与创新图谱的成都轨道交通产业生态链优化策略研究”(2023-RK00-00166-ZF)。

摘　　要：目前我国缺乏对轨道交通产业领域科技创新能力评价的研究以及对该产业科技创新能力评价的国家(推荐)标准,而客观认识轨道产业创新能力、揭示其各发展阶段的障碍因素是激发轨道交通产业创新活力的前提。以Logistic回归模型为基础,从产业规模视角对轨道交通产业发展阶段进行识别划分,并基于轨道交通产业的特点,建立轨道交通产业创新水平评价指标体系,选取2007—2021年我国轨道交通产业各项指标数据,测算分析轨道交通产业创新能力水平及其变化,进而利用障碍度模型估计轨道交通产业不同发展阶段的主要障碍因子,为制定策略提供理论基础。结果表明:在2007—2021年间,我国轨道交通产业发展可划分为形成期(2001—2010年)、成长早期(2011—2014年)、成长后期(2015—2018年)和成熟期(2019—2021年)4个阶段。我国轨道交通产业创新水平呈平稳上升态势,随着社会发展,不同发展阶段的主要障碍因子不断变化。At present,there is a lack of research on the evaluation of scientific and technological innovation capabilities in the field of rail transit industry in China,as well as national(recommended)standards for the evaluation of this industry's scientific and technological innovation capabilities.However,objectively understanding the innovation capabilities of the rail transit industry and revealing the obstacles in its various development stages are the prerequisites for stimulating the innovation vitality of the rail transit industry.Based on the logistic regression model,this article identifies and divides the development stages of the rail transit industry from the perspective of industry scale,an evaluation index system for the innovation level of the rail transit industry is established according to its characteristics,and various indicator data of China's rail transit industry from 2007 to 2021 are selected to calculate and analyze the innovation capacity level and its changes.Further,the obstacle degree model is used to estimate the main obstacle factors of the rail transit industry at different development stages,providing a theoretical basis for formulating strategies.The results indicate that from 2007 to 2021,the development of China's rail transit industry can be divided into four stages:formation period(2001-2010),early growth period(2011-2014),late growth period(2015-2018),and maturity period(2019-2021).The innovation level of China's rail transit industry is steadily increasing,and with the development of society,the main obstacles at different stages of development are constantly changing.

关 键 词：轨道交通产业 LOGISTIC模型 创新水平 熵权法 变异系数法 TOPSIS模型 障碍因子 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F224[文化科学] G301