“双碳”目标下钢铁行业节能与电气化发展趋势及影响因素分析  

Development Trend and Impact Analysis of Energy Conservation and Electrification in the Steel Industry Under the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Goals

作　　者：袁启恒 刘贵贤 鲁玺[2] 薄宇[2,3] 李燕溪 赵添翼 黄昱杰 王宇博 郑佳琳 王旭东 王林[5] Yuan Qiheng;Liu Guixian;Lu Xi;Bo Yu;Li Yanxi;Zhao Tianyi;Huang Yujie;Wang Yubo;Zheng Jialin;Wang Xudong;Wang Lin(Big Data Center,State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing 100190,China;School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300010,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网有限公司大数据中心,北京100190 [2]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [4]清华大学,北京100084 [5]国网天津市电力公司,天津300010

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2025年第1期229-239,共11页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目“大型城市碳资产运营服务数字支撑技术研究及应用”(5700-202312315A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：钢铁行业作为中国最大的能源消耗和CO_(2)排放行业之一,对实现“双碳”目标具有重要影响。节能和电气化是钢铁行业脱碳的关键措施,因此从钢铁行业的全工序视角出发,利用学习曲线模型预测2021—2060年中国钢铁行业工序单位能耗下降趋势,并对应用推广氢冶金技术后,中国钢铁行业的电气化影响和碳排放影响进行评估。结果显示:钢铁行业的烧结、球团、焦炉、高炉、转炉和电炉工序单位能耗呈现单调下降趋势,其中球团和电炉工序下降幅度最大;2021—2060年,中国钢铁能源消耗总量经历先下降、再上升、再下降的趋势,高炉工序的能源消耗占比始终稳定在80%左右;应用氢冶金技术后,钢铁行业对电力的需求将大幅增加,电力消耗量约增长10倍。基于此,提出动态设立钢铁供需单位能耗降低目标,扩大和优化电力基础设施以应对钢铁行业的电力需求激增,推动针对氢冶金工序电力需求与电网负载优化策略等建议。The steel industry,as one of China's largest energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions industries,has a significant impact on achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.Energy conservation and electrification are key measures for decarbonization in the steel industry.Therefore,from the perspective of the entire process of the steel industry and based on historical data from 1981 to 2021,the learning curve model is used to predict the downward trend of unit energy consumption in the steel industry from 2021 to 2060.At the same time,the electrification and carbon emissions impacts of the Chinese steel industry after the application and promotion of hydrogen metallurgy technology are evaluated.The empirical results show that the unit energy consumption of sintering,pelletizing,coke oven,blast furnace,converter,and electric furnace processes in the steel industry shows a monotonic downward trend.Among these,the pelletizing and electric furnace processes exhibit the most significant reductions,decreasing to 56% and 42% of their 2021 levels,respectively.From 2021 to 2060,the total energy consumption of steel in China follows a pattern of initial decline,subsequent increase,and eventual decrease.By 2060,it is projected to fall to 280 million tons of standard coal,marking a 50% reduction compared to 2021.The energy consumption proportion of blast furnace processes has remained stable at around 80%.With the adoption of hydrogen metallurgy technology,the steel industry's electricity is expected to rise dramatically,increasing approximately tenfold.Based on this,this study proposes to dynamically set the unit energy consumption reduction target of steel supply and demand,expand and optimize the power infrastructure to cope with the surge of power demand in the steel industry,and promote the targeted power demand,as well as grid load optimization strategy of hydrogen metallurgy process.

关 键 词：钢铁行业 工序单位能耗 节能 氢冶金 电气化 碳减排 “双碳” 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F224[经济管理—国民经济] G301[文化科学]