基于舞动幅值的覆冰输电线路舞动停运概率计算  

Calculation of galloping outage probability of ice-covered transmission lines based on galloping amplitude

作　　者：孙天杰 林济铿[2] 罗萍萍 SUN Tianjie;LIN Jikeng;LUO Pingping(School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China;School of Electronics and Information Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学电气工程学院,上海200090 [2]同济大学电子与信息工程学院,上海201804

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2025年第3期85-94,共10页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177107)。

摘　　要：输电线路覆冰舞动是线路停运的主要原因之一,准确预测线路舞动停运概率并采取相应的预防措施,对于提高电网运行的安全性和稳定性具有非常积极的意义。文中提出了一种计算覆冰导线舞动停运概率的新方法。所提方法首先基于D'Alembert原理建立计及相邻档舞动影响的覆冰导线舞动方程,采用Runge-Kutta方法求得舞动幅值,进一步提升了舞动模型的准确性;其次根据舞动幅值提出了考虑气隙击穿电压分散性的舞动跳闸概率计算方法和计及线路老化效应的舞动断线概率计算方法,进而综合得到线路舞动停运概率。最后通过实际算例验证了文中模型和计算方法的有效性,可以为输电线路舞动灾害防治提供一定的辅助支持。The galloping of ice-covered transmission lines is one of the main reasons for line outages.Accurately predicting the outage probability of line galloping and taking corresponding preventive measures is of great signifi-cance for improving the safety and stability of power grid operation.In this paper,a novel method to calculate the outage probability of the galloping of ice-covered conductors is proposed.This method firstly establishes the ice-cov-ered conductor galloping equation based on principle of D'Alembert,which takes into account the influence of adja-cent gear galloping,and adopts the Runge-Kutta method to obtain the galloping amplitude.The proposed method further improves the accuracy of the dancing model.Secondly,according to the galloping amplitude,the calcula-tion method of galloping trip probability considering the dispersion of air-gap breakdown voltage,and the calculation method of galloping disconnection probability considering the aging effect of transmission lines are proposed,then the outage probability of line galloping is comprehensively obtained.Finally,the example results prove the validity of the model and calculation method proposed in this paper,which can provide certain auxiliary support for the pre-vention and control of transmission line galloping disasters.

关 键 词：输电线路 覆冰 舞动方程 相邻档舞动 停运概率 

分 类 号：TM726[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]