2010—2023年温州市流行性腮腺炎时空聚集性分析  

Spatio-temporal clustering analysis of mumps in Wenzhou City from 2010 to 2023

作　　者：李玲[1] 魏晶娇[1] 潘琼娇[1] 李万仓[1] 王坚 LI Ling;WEI Jingjiao;PAN Qiongjiao;LI Wancang;WANG Jian(Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention(Wenzhou Institute of Health Inspection),Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325000,China)

机构地区：[1]温州市疾病预防控制中心(温州市卫生监督所),浙江温州325000

出　　处：《预防医学》2025年第3期284-287,共4页China Preventive Medicine Journal

基　　金：温州市基础性公益科研项目(Y20240876)。

摘　　要：目的了解2010—2023年浙江省温州市流行性腮腺炎(流腮)时空聚集性,为完善流腮防控策略提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统监测报告管理系统收集2010—2023年温州市流腮病例资料,采用空间自相关和时空扫描分析流腮的时空聚集特征。结果2010—2023年温州市报告流腮病例20455例,年均发病率为17.54/10万。男性12919例,女性7536例,男女比为1.71∶1。5~<10岁组发病率最高,为135.29/10万。2010—2023年流腮发病率呈下降趋势(P<0.05),从2010年的46.82/10万下降至2023年的3.59/10万。2010—2012年发病高峰为5—7月和11月至次年1月,2013年开始冬季发病高峰不明显,2020年后发病无季节性趋势。空间自相关分析结果显示,除2018年外,其他年份流腮发病存在空间相关性(Moran's I值均>0,均P<0.05);高-高聚集区主要集中在鹿城区、龙湾区、瓯海区、苍南县和瑞安市。时空扫描分析结果显示,Ⅰ类聚集区以瓯海区南白象街道为中心,覆盖50个乡镇(街道),聚集时间为2010年4月—2013年8月;Ⅱ类聚集区以苍南县藻溪镇为中心,覆盖24个乡镇(街道),聚集时间为2010年1月—2013年6月。结论2010—2023年温州市流腮发病率呈下降趋势,市区、苍南县和瑞安市为聚集地区。Objective To identify the spatio-temporal clustering analysis of mumps in Wenzhou City,Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2023,so as to provide the basis for improving mumps prevention and control strategies.Methods Data of mumps cases in Wenzhou City from 2010 to 2023 were collected from the Monitoring and Reporting Management System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System.The spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of mumps incidence were identified using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal scan analysis.Results A total of 20455 mumps cases were reported in Wenzhou City from 2010 to 2023,with an average annual incidence of 17.54/105.There were 12919 male and 7536 female cases,with a male-to-female ratio of 1.71∶1.The children aged 5-<10 years had the highest incidence of mumps at 135.29/105.The incidence of mumps showed a downward trend from 46.82/105 in 2010 to 3.59/105 in 2023(P<0.05).The incidence of mumps peaked from May to July and from November to January during 2010 and 2012,the winter peak became less evident after 2013,and no seasonal trends were observed after 2020.Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed there was a positive spatial correlation of mumps of other years,with the exception of 2018(all Moran's I>0,all P<0.05).Lucheng District,Longwan District,Ouhai District,Cangnan County and Rui'an City were high-high clustering sites.Spatio-temporal scan analysis showed that the primary clustering area was centered in Nanbaixiang Street,Ouhai District,covering 50 towns(streets),with the clustering time from April 2010 to August 2013;the secondary clustering area was centered in Zaoxi Town,Cangnan County,covering 24 towns(streets),with the clustering time from January 2010 to June 2013.Conclusions The incidence of mumps in Wenzhou City from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend.The urban areas,Cangnan County and Rui'an City were the clustering areas.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 空间自相关 时空扫描 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]