个人不确定性体验的生成机制及其反思  

The Generation Mechanism of Personal Uncertainty Experience and Its Reflection

作　　者：吴志鹏 文军[2] Wu Zhipeng;Wen Jun(School of Social Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200122,China;Institute of Modern Chinese Urban Studies and School of Social Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200122,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学社会发展学院,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心暨社会发展学院,上海200241

出　　处：《西北民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第1期76-86,共11页Journal of Northwest Minzu University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新形势下我国社会发展面临的不确定性及其应对机制研究”(项目编号:22&ZD183);国家社会科学基金重点项目“不确定性研究的社会学转向及其体系建构”(项目编号:22ASH002)。

摘　　要：当前不确定性的日益凸显不仅给社会发展带来深刻的挑战,也给人们的日常生活带来了极大冲击,本研究旨在探究个人不确定性体验的生成机制。首先,内在的生物性因素和外在的客观环境会促使人们形成较为稳定的个人“确定性—不确定性”偏好程度;其次,由于注意力的有限性,人们往往会选择关注与其密切相关的客观不确定性,并诱发其内在的主观不确定性感知;最后,在心理模拟等机制的作用下,人们会不自觉地将客观不确定性引发的主观不确定性感知与个人“确定性—不确定性”偏好程度进行比较和评估,由此导致确定性偏好与不确定性吸引的分化。The increasing prominence of uncertainty in the present era not only brings profound challenges to social development,but also exerts a great impact on people’s daily lives.This study aims to explore the generation mechanism of personal uncertainty experience.Firstly,the biological factors within individuals and the objective environment outside of them will prompt individuals to form relatively stable personal“certainty-uncertainty”preference level.Secondly,due to the limited attention,individuals tend to choose to focus on the objective uncertainty that is closely related to themselves,inducing their internal subjective uncertain perception.Finally,under the influence of psychological simulation and other mechanisms,individuals will unconsciously compare and evaluate the subjective uncertain perception induced by objective uncertainty with their personal“certainty-uncertainty”preference level,leading to the result of dichotomy of“certainty preference”and“uncertainty attraction”.

关 键 词：个人不确定性 确定性偏好 不确定性吸引 

分 类 号：C91[经济管理]