济南市新型城镇化与绿色低碳耦合度研究  

Research on the Coupling Degree of New Urbanisation and Green Low Carbon in Jinan City

作　　者：徐贺博 李泽唐 张晓晓 王歌潇 Xu Hebo;Li Zetang;Zhang Xiaoxiao;Wang Gexiao(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan,Shandong 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学建筑城规学院,济南250100

出　　处：《城市学刊》2025年第1期70-75,共6页Journal of Urban Studies

摘　　要：基于济南市2007—2020年连续统计面板数据,运用改进熵值法、耦合协调度、相对发展度、灰色关联度模型,分析新型城镇化与绿色低碳两者耦合协调发展变化趋势及影响因素。结果表明:济南市新型城镇化与绿色低碳耦合过程存在波动,协调水平值由0.192上升至0.899,增长达3.68倍,耦合协调模式由新型城镇化带动型发展为两者高度协调待强化型;济南市新型城镇化与低碳发展交互关系显著,研究期内新型城镇化对低碳发展的影响力显著提升,而消费碳排放和工业碳排放对新型城镇化的影响力有所下降。建议结合济南市第三产业迅速发展的特征,在促进经济发展的同时降低碳排放,使济南市城镇化绿色低碳发展。Based on the continuous statistical panel data of Jinan City from 2007 to 2020,this paper uses the improved entropy method,coupling coordination degree model,relative development degree model,and grey correlation degree model to analyze the change trend and influencing factors of the coupled and coordinated development between new urbanization and green low-carbon development.The results indicate that:there are fluctuations in the coupling process between the two.The coordination level value has increased from 0.192 to 0.899,representing a 3.68-fold increase.The coupling coordination model has evolved from the a new urbanization driven model to a highly coordinated and yet to be strengthened model;there is a significant interactive relationship between new urbanization and low-carbon development in Jinan.During the study period,the influence of new urbanization on low-carbon development has significantly increased,while the influence of consumption carbon emissions and industrial carbon emissions on new urbanization has decreased.Considering the rapid development of the tertiary industry in Jinan,it is essential to reduce carbon emissions while promoting economic growth to achieve green and low-carbon urbanization.

关 键 词：济南都市圈 新型城镇化 绿色低碳 耦合协调度 灰色关联模型 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]