机场旅客捷运系统客流预测方法研究  

Study on airport APM system passenger flow prediction method

作　　者：李苍楠 张颀 祖国强[3] 朱亚迪[4] LI Cangnan;ZHANG Qi;ZU Guoqiang;ZHU Yadi(China Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing Jiangsu 210014,China;Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou Guangdong 510403,China;Beijing Capital International Airport Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100621,China;School of Civil Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]华设设计集团股份有限公司,江苏南京210014 [2]广州白云国际机场股份有限公司,广东广州510403 [3]北京首都国际机场股份有限公司,北京100621 [4]北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院,北京100044

出　　处：《现代城市轨道交通》2025年第3期86-91,共6页Modern Urban Transit

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52202385)。

摘　　要：机场旅客捷运系统服务于大型机场空侧旅客接驳,是机场运行流程中的重要环节,其客流特征与城市轨道交通存在显著差异。针对机场空侧客流特征,研究一种机场捷运系统客流预测方法。该方法包括旅客流程分析、客流量分配、OD客流整合分析、集中系数与高峰系数等反映机场客流波动特征的系数计算取值、高峰小时断面客流分成分预测等步骤。基于机场往年的实际运营客流数据,在同等吞吐量和旅客流程条件下进行验证,预测结果与实际运营数据契合度较高。此客流预测方法可对机场空侧客流进行科学有效预测,与机场运行特征相符,能够有力支撑机场捷运系统的规划设计。The airport APM system serves the air side passenger connection of large airports,which is an important link in the airport operation process,and the characteristics of its passenger flow are significantly different from that of the urban rail transit.Targeting at air side passenger flow characteristics,a method for passenger flow prediction of the airport APM system is studied.Specific steps of this method includ passenger process analysis,passenger flow distribution,OD passenger flow integration analysis,calculation of coefficients such as concentration coefficient and peak coefficient that could reflect characteristics of airport passenger flow fluctuation,passenger flow component prediction of peak hour section,etc.The verification of this method is developed based on the actual passenger flow data of the airport in previous years under the same throughput and passenger process conditions,and the prediction results are in good conformity with the actual operation data.This passenger flow prediction method could scientifically and effectively predict the air side passenger flow of the airport,coincides with the operation characteristics of the airport,and could support the planning and design of airport APM system.

关 键 词：轨道交通 机场捷运系统 客流预测 旅客流程 

分 类 号：U239.9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]