基于Choquet积分与前景理论的改进FMEA及临床疗效评价模型  

Improved FMEA and Clinical Efficacy Evaluation Model based on Choquet Integral and Prospect Theory

作　　者：孙秉珍[1] 乔金豆 楚晓丽 师艺轩 刘静 SUN Bing-zhen;QIAO Jin-dou;CHU Xiao-li;SHI Yi-xuan;LIU Jing(School of Economics and Management,Xidian University,Xi'an 710000,China;State Key Laboratory of Dampness Syndrome of Chinese Medicine,The Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicines,Guangzhou 510120,China)

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710000 [2]广州中医药大学第二附属医院省部共建中医湿症国家重点实验室,广东广州510120

出　　处：《模糊系统与数学》2024年第4期33-43,共11页Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72071152);陕西省杰出青年基金项目(2023-JC-JQ-11);西安市软科学项目(2022RKYJ0030);陕西省高校青年创新团队(2019);广州市重点研发计划项目(202206010101)。

摘　　要：针对临床治疗方案优选问题,基于疗效视角采用逐次排除无效方案的过程是典型的FMEA问题。FMEA问题的核心在于三个风险因子间的独立性和专家的绝对理性,实际中风险因子间可能存在一定的关联性且专家是相对理性的。因此,本文基于传统的FMEA模型,在风险因子评估阶段引入非可加测度,对风险因子间的相互作用进行定量刻画,在失效模式的排序阶段引入前景理论实现对专家风险偏好的表示与计算,建立了一种基于非可加测度的改进FMEA模型,实现了对具有多个风险因子且风险因子之间相互关联特征决策问题的有效解决。最后,把提出的风险分析模型应用于临床诊疗方案优选问题,将慢性病的临床治疗转化为一个类失效模式识别问题,通过真实的临床数据证明了所提出模型的应用步骤与基本原理。数据分析结果不仅与临床实际具有较好的一致性,还为类风湿性关节炎的诊断治疗提供了一个新的视角和工具。For the optimization of clinical treatment plans,the process of eliminating invalid plans step by step from the perspective of efficacy is a typical FMEA problem.The core of FMEA lies in the independence of three risk factors and the absolute rationality of experts.In fact,there may be some correlation between risk factors and experts are relatively rational.Therefore,this paper introduces non-additive measures in the risk factor evaluation stage to quantitatively depict the interaction between risk factors,and introduces prospect theory in the failure mode ranking stage to realize the representation and calculation of experts'risk preferences,and establishes an improved FMEA model based on non-additive measures.Finally,the proposed risk analysis model is applied to the optimization of clinical diagnosis and treatment plans,and the clinical treatment of chronic diseases is transformed into a problem of similar failure pattern recognition,The data analysis results not only have good consistency with the clinical practice,but also provide a new perspective for the diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

关 键 词：失效模式与影响分析 前景理论 医疗决策 非可加测度 

分 类 号：C94[自然科学总论—系统科学]