生育的集体动态:低生育率背景下生育意愿同伴效应研究  

Collective Dynamics of Fertility:Peer Effects on Fertility Intentions in Low-fertility Contexts

作　　者：梁嘉宁 孙悦[2] 管梓妤 LIANG Jia-ning;SUN Yue;GUAN Zi-yu(Teaching and Research Section of Ecological Civilization,Tianjin Municipal Party School of CPC,Tianjin,300191,China;Northeast Asia Institute,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin,300071,China)

机构地区：[1]中共天津市委党校生态文明教研部,天津300191 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012 [3]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期66-77,共12页Journal of Xihua University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目“天津践行‘绿水青山就是金山银山’理念成效与路径优化研究”(项目编号:TJYJQN24-011)。

摘　　要：人口问题是关系到国家社会经济发展的重大问题,当前我国人口发展面临的突出挑战是低生育水平问题。在低生育率背景下,育龄群体生育意愿的高低直接影响宏观层面上生育水平的高低。文章使用CFPS2018年和2022年数据,基于空间计量分析方法,从空间邻近性和社会邻近性双重视角探究同伴效应对生育意愿的影响。研究发现,育龄群体的生育意愿受到邻里同伴效应和职业同伴效应的正向影响,即同一地理范围和同一职业群体内其他主体的生育意愿对行为主体的生育意愿有显著促进作用。农村育龄群体更易受到邻里同伴的影响,城镇育龄群体更易受到职业同伴的影响,且育龄男性整体上比育龄女性更易受到同伴效应的影响。研究结论为解释多元化的生育模式提供了新视角,并为应对生育率走低及进一步优化生育政策提供了参考。Population issues are crucial to national socioeconomic development,with low fertility emerging as a prominent challenge.The fertility intentions of childbearing-age groups directly impact overall fertility levels.This study uses data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)2018 and 2022 and applies spatial econometric methods from geographic proximity and occupational homogeneity perspectives to examine how peer effects influence fertility intentions.The findings reveal that fertility intentions are positively affected by both neighborhood and occupational peer effects.Individuals'fertility intentions are significantly shaped by the intentions of others within the same geographical area and occupational group.Rural childbearing-age individuals are more influenced by neighborhood peers,while urban childbearing-age individuals are more affected by occupational peers.Additionally,reproductive-age males are generally more susceptible to peer effects than females.The study provides a new perspective on fertility patterns and offers insights for addressing declining fertility rates and optimizing fertility policies.

关 键 词：生育意愿 同伴效应 邻里同伴 职业同伴 人口高质量发展 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]