长三角城市群文旅产业协调发展时空演化特征及驱动因素  

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Coordinated Development of Cultural and Tourism Industry in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：喻江平[1] 董欣童 侯世祥 YU Jiang-ping;DONG Xin-tong;HOU Shi-xiang(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《西华师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期195-204,共10页Journal of China West Normal University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地经费资助项目(JJ2221)。

摘　　要：基于2010—2021年长三角城市群27个城市的面板数据,运用协调模型和探索性空间数据分析方法,分析长三角城市群文旅协调水平的变化趋势及空间格局,并从产业融合理论视角构建文旅协调发展的动力机制,结合地理加权回归模型对各因素作用的时空演变规律进行探究,结果表明:(1)城市群文旅协调度均值呈稳定增长态势,但整体呈濒临失调状态,协调度呈现东高西低的空间格局;(2)根据局部相关性分析,上海和嘉兴为该区域重要增长极,表现为高-高关联区域,合肥和南京存在“马太效应”趋势,表现为高-低关联区域,芜湖和池州为低-低关联区域;(3)时空地理加权回归结果显示,消费需求、技术进步、政府管制、人力资本及基础设施对文旅协调水平表现为正向促进作用与负向抑制作用并存,各驱动因素作用存在明显空间分异。针对城市群文化产业和旅游产业濒临失调、文旅协调发展不平衡不充分等问题,提出建立长三角城市群生态环境协同保护和治理的长效机制、构建错位发展的文旅产业格局等建议。Based on the panel data of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2021,this paper analyzed the tendency and spatial pattern of the coordination level between culture and tourism in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration by using the coupling coordination model and exploratory spatial data analysis method,and constructed the dynamic mechanism of the coordinated development between culture and tourism from the perspective of industrial integration theory,and explored the law of spatio-temporal evolution influenced by various factors with the geographical weighted regression model.The results show that:(1)The average coordination degree between culture and tourism in urban agglomeration grows steadily,which is,however,on the verge of imbalance as a whole.The coupling coordination degree presents a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west.(2)According to the local correlation analysis,Shanghai and Jiaxing are the important growth poles there,which is characterized by their high-high correlation areas;there incline to exist“Matthew effect”in Hefei and Nanjing,which is characterized by their high-low correlation areas;Wuhu and Chizhou are low-low correlation regions.(3)The results of spatio-temporal geographic weighted regression show that consumer demand,technological progress,government regulation,human capital and infrastructure have both positive and negative effects on the coordination level between culture and tourism,and there are obvious spatial differences in the role of each driving factor.In view of the imbalance between the cultural and tourism industry in the urban agglomeration,and the unbalanced and insufficient coordinated development between culture and tourism,some suggestions are put forward to establish a long-term mechanism for the ecological coordinated protection and governance of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,and to build a cultural and tourism industry pattern of dislocation development.

关 键 词：文旅协调 探索性空间数据分析方法 时空地理加权回归 长三角城市群 

分 类 号：F592.99[经济管理—旅游管理]