田野里的隐形纽带:社会资本对新型农业经营主体农业信贷担保违约的影响研究  

The Invisible Ties in the Field:A Study on The Impact of Social Capital on the Default of Agricultural Credit Guarantee of New Agricultural Business Entities

作　　者：胡杰 罗剑朝[1,2] HU Jie;LUO Jianchao

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]陕西省农村金融研究中心,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期67-81,共15页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“乡村振兴视域下政策性担保双重目标的实践逻辑与治理机制”(72363026);国家自然科学基金面上项目“农业生物资产价值动态评估、抵押融资模式与风险管理政策研究”(72273105);西北农林科技大学经济管理学院研究生科研创新项目“农业信用担保体系风险控制研究”(JGYJSCXXM202303)。

摘　　要：能否以无形的社会资本作为风险控制机制,降低新型农业经营主体在农业信贷担保融资中的违约风险,促进农业信贷担保体系可持续发展,是值得关注和讨论的重要问题。基于陕西、山西、江苏三省新型农业经营主体的实地调研数据,采用Probit模型分析社会资本对新型农业经营主体农业信贷担保违约的影响。研究发现:提升借款人社会资本,能够有效降低其在农业信贷担保融资中的违约风险,其中乡村社会资本的作用最强,政府社会资本次之,金融社会资本最弱。异质性分析发现,年轻一代的新型农业经营主体在农业信贷担保融资中的违约更易受到社会资本的影响;农业担保机构实缴资本规模越小,新型农业经营主体在农业信贷担保融资中的违约风险越大,但社会资本能在一定程度上削弱这种不利影响。机制分析发现,增强借款人的还贷意愿和还贷能力,是社会资本在农业信贷担保融资中有效降低新型农业经营主体违约风险的重要机制。本文结论可在一定程度上为促进新型农业经营主体社会资本积累和完善农业信贷担保体系风险控制策略提供实证依据和现实参考。Whether invisible social capital can be used as a risk control mechanism to reduce the default risk of new agricultural business entities in agricultural credit guarantee financing and promote the sustainable development of agricultural credit guarantee system is an important issue worthy of attention and discussion.Based on the field survey data of new agricultural business entities in Shaanxi,Shanxi and Jiangsu provinces,this paper uses the Probit model to analyze the impact of social capital on the agricultural credit guarantee default of new agricultural business entities.The study finds that improving the so⁃cial capitals of borrowers can effectively reduce their default risk in agricultural credit guarantee financing.Among them,rural social capital has the strongest effect,followed by government social capital,and fi⁃nancial social capital has the weakest effect.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that younger generations of new agricultural business entities are more susceptible to the effects of social capital in mitigating defaults.Additionally,agricultural guarantee institutions with smaller paid-in capital scales correlate with higher default risks,though social capital can partially offset this adverse impact.Mechanism analysis shows that enhancing the borrower’s willingness and ability to repay loans serves as a key pathway through which social capital reduces the default risk of new agricultural business entities in agricultural credit guarantee financing.These conclusions provide empirical basis and practical insights for promoting the social capital accumulation among new agricultural business entities and refining the risk control strategies for agricultural credit guarantee system.

关 键 词：社会资本 新型农业经营主体 农业信贷担保 信贷违约 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济] F832.43