功能依赖、风险承载力与宅基地退出意愿  

Functional Dependence,Risk Bearing Capacity,and Willingness to Exit Homestead Land

作　　者：韩述 郭贯成[1,2] 刘俊杰 HAN Shu;GUO Guancheng;LIU Junjie

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]南京农业大学中国资源环境与发展研究院,江苏南京210095 [3]农业农村部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期207-219,共13页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“乡村振兴背景下农村宅基地流转梗阻及其治理研究”(20AGL024);国家社会科学基金项目“农村宅基地‘三权分置’改革试点工作成效评估研究”(22BGY003);国家自然科学基金项目“不同类型区域农村宅基地利用效率:空间分异、驱动机制和优化机制”(42471301)。

摘　　要：在中国农村土地制度改革背景下,宅基地退出成为优化土地资源配置、促进乡村振兴的重要议题。基于江苏省6768户农户的微观数据,运用二元Logistic回归模型、门槛效应模型及中介效应模型,从功能依赖和风险承载力两个维度出发,系统考察宅基地退出意愿的形成机理。结果表明:(1)功能依赖对退出意愿有显著影响。其中,居住保障功能依赖和情感寄托功能依赖对退出意愿有显著的抑制作用,而资产价值功能依赖则显著激励退出意愿。(2)风险承载力对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响呈现双门槛效应。当风险承载力低于第一门槛值(43.15)时,对退出意愿产生负向影响;当风险承载力介于两门槛之间时,对退出意愿产生正向促进作用;当风险承载力超过第二门槛值(68.13)时,对退出意愿再次产生负向影响。(3)退出意愿遵循“风险承载力→功能依赖→宅基地退出意愿”的中介决策逻辑。当风险承载力较低时,风险承载力通过增加居住保障功能依赖促使农户选择保留宅基地;当风险承载力适中时,风险承载力通过增加资产价值功能依赖促进农户参与宅基地退出的积极性;当风险承载力较高时,风险承载力通过增强情感寄托功能依赖对退出意愿产生负向影响。因此,建议政府在制定宅基地退出政策时,应充分考虑农户对不同功能的依赖程度,制定差异化、精细化的激励措施;加强对农户的风险管理能力培训,提高其风险承载力;引导农户在充分考虑自身风险承载力的基础上,积极参与宅基地退出决策,促进宅基地资源的有效利用。In the context of land system reform in rural China,the exit from homestead land has be⁃come an important issue for optimizing land resource allocation and promoting rural revitalization.Based on micro-level data from 6768 households in Jiangsu Province,this study uses binary logistic regression models,threshold effect models,and mediation effect models to systematically examine the formation mechanism of homestead land exit willingness from the perspectives of functional dependence and riskbearing capacity.The results are as follows:1)Functional dependence has a significant impact on the willingness to exit.Among them,reliance on housing security and emotional attachment functions signifi⁃cantly inhibits the willingness to exit,while reliance on asset value function significantly stimulates the willingness.2)Risk-bearing capacity exhibits a dual-threshold effect on farmers'willingness to withdraw from rural homesteads.When risk bearing capacity is below the first threshold value(43.15),it has a negative impact on willingness to withdraw;when it is between the two thresholds,it positively pro⁃motes the willingness;and when it exceeds the second threshold value(68.13),it again has a negative impact on the willingness.3)Farmers’willingness to exit follows the mediation decision making logic of“risk bearing capacity→functional dependence→willingness to exit from rural homesteads.”When risk bearing capacity is too low,it prompts farmers to choose to retain their rural homesteads by increasing re⁃liance on housing security functions.When risk bearing capacity is moderate,it encourages farmers to ac⁃tively exit from rural homesteads by increasing reliance on asset value functions.However,when risk bearing capacity is excessively high,it negatively affects the willingness to exit by increasing reliance on emotional attachment.Therefore,it is recommended that the government,in formulating homestead land exit policies,should fully consider farmers'dependence on different functions and develop different

关 键 词：功能依赖 风险承载力 宅基地退出意愿 门槛效应 中介效应 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]