基于FTA-FBN 模型的装配式建筑施工安全风险评估研究  

Research on Safety Risk Assessment of Prefabricated Building Construction Based on FTA-FBN Model

作　　者：邓普元 柳子奕 Deng Puyuan;Liu Ziyi(Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou,Jiangxi 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《长江工程职业技术学院学报》2025年第1期7-14,共8页Journal of Changjiang Institute of Technology

基　　金：2023年江西省研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2023-S621)。

摘　　要：装配式建筑施工安全风险具有模糊性和随机性的特性,为了精确有效的评估装配式建筑施工安全风险,从风险事件发生概率的角度推理装配式安全风险致因因素。结合系统安全工程的理论方法,构建故障树模型(FTA)分析风险事件之间的逻辑关系,并通过临界重要度表征风险事件对安全事故发生的影响程度。另外,为了弥补故障树概率定量分析的短板,引入了模糊贝叶斯网络模型(FBN)推理机制,计算风险事件的先验概率与后验概率间的变化率,最终精准判定对装配式施工安全事故影响最大的风险事件。研究表明,所建立的FTA-FBN模型分析结果合理可靠,对提高装配式建筑施工安全风险管理与决策具有良好的推动作用。The safety risk of prefabricated building construction has the characteristics of fuzziness and randomness.In order to accurately and effectively evaluate the safety risk of prefabricated building construction,the causal factors of prefabricated safety risk are inferred from the perspective of the probability of risk events.Combined with the theoretical methods of system safety engineering,a fault tree model(FTA)is constructed to analyze the logical relationship between risk events,and the degree of influence of risk events on the occurrence of safety accidents is characterized by critical importance.In addition,in order to make up for the shortcomings of quantitative analysis of fault tree probability,the fuzzy Bayesian network model(FBN)reasoning mechanism is introduced to calculate the change rate between the prior probability and the posterior probability of risk events,and finally accurately determine the risk event with the greatest impact on prefabricated construction safety accidents.The study shows that the analysis results of the established FTA-FBN model are reasonable and reliable,and have a good driving effect on improving the safety risk management and decision-making of prefabricated building construction.

关 键 词：装配式建筑 风险评估 故障树 模糊贝叶斯网络 相似度聚合法 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]