基于PAC与Markov-GM(1,1)模型的中东地区油气投资评价和预测  

Evaluation and Prediction of Oil and Gas Investment in the Middle East Based on PAC and Markov-GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：明丽婷 王江涛[2] 刘保磊 明瑞东 MING Li-ting;WANG Jiang-tao;LIU Bao-lei;MING Rui-dong(Exploration and Development Technology Research Institute,Yanchang Oilfield Co.,Ltd.,Yanan 716000,China;Yanchang Oil Mine Management Bureau Xingzichuan Drilling Company,Yanan 716000,China;College of Petroleum Engineering,Yangtze University/Hubei Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Drilling and Production,Wuhan 430100,China;School of Materials Science and Engineering,Wuhan Textile University,Wuhan 430200,China)

机构地区：[1]延长油田股份有限公司勘探开发技术研究中心,陕西延安716000 [2]延长油田股份有限公司杏子川采油厂,陕西延安716000 [3]长江大学石油工程学院/油气钻采工程湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430100 [4]武汉纺织大学材料科学与工程学院,湖北武汉430200

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2025年第2期127-138,共12页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：2020年,受全球新冠疫情爆发、石油市场价格大幅下跌及全球经济大衰退的多重影响,全球油气供需关系发生巨大转变中东地区作为世界上最大的油气供给带之一,影响各国经济稳健发展.因此,分析影响中东地区油气投资的因素,预测未来的投资趋势,对全球经济恢复具有一定的现实意义.本研究筛选了17个主要因素并进行排序,通过主成分分析法结合马尔可夫残差修正下的灰色模型建立中东地区油气投资预测模型.结果表明,近几年中东地区的油气风险投资逐年减小,主要受油气价格、运营成本、政府年费、GDP等经济因素影响;此外,在疫情、低油价及地缘政治影响下,未来三来世界各国对中东地区的投资力度或将呈现下降趋势且降速浮动在15%左右.The Middle East is rich in oil and gas resources.Together with Central Asia and Russia,it forms the"two major supply belts"of oil and gas in the world.It is an important oil and gas producing area,export area and crude oil production adjustment area,and also an important resource country distribution area of The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC).Therefore,it is of certain theoretical value and practical guiding significance to accurately analyze the oil and gas investment factors and predict the future oil and gas investment in the Middle East.In order to accurately analyze the investment risk of oil and gas resources in the Middle East region,17 main factors affecting oil and gas investment in the Middle East region are sorted through screening and analysis of big data,and then the prediction model of oil and gas resources investment in the Middle East region is established by principal component analysis and Markov residual-gray model.Comprehensive research shows that in recent years,oil and gas venture investment in the Middle East has decreased year by year,mainly due to the impact of crude oil price,Capex,annual government fees,GDP and other economic factors.In addition,under the prediction of Markov-GM(1,1)model,due to the double impact of epidemic and low oil price in 2020,as well as the escalating internal conflicts among oil-producing countries,the investment in the Middle East has been declining at an average annual rate of about 15.

关 键 词：中东地区 油气资源 风险投资 主成分分析 Markov-GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]