基于组合预测模型的福建省建筑废弃物产量预测及空间分布研究  

Fujian Production Prediction and Spatial Distribution of Construction Waste Based on Combined Prediction Model

作　　者：蔡彬清 杨晓露 张铮燕 CAI Bin-qing;YANG Xiao-lu;ZHANG Zheng-yan(School of Management,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China)

机构地区：[1]福建理工大学管理学院,福建福州350118

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2025年第2期139-148,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72474047)。

摘　　要：科学的估算和预测建筑废弃物的产量是建筑废弃物有效管理的基础。应用灰色模型、ARIMA模型和指数平滑模型相结合的组合预测模型,预测2021-2030年间福建省建筑废弃物的产量,对福建九个设区市2010-2020年建筑废弃物的估算量进行趋势检验,并分析福建省建筑废弃物产量空间分布特征.研究结果表明:福建省及其九个设区市建筑废弃物产量2010-2020年间、2021-2030年间整体上均呈现出增长趋势,但建筑废弃物产量在各区市空间分布上显著不均,经济发展快、城镇化程度高和进程快的城市建筑废弃物产量更高.本文预测分析方法和结论可以为建筑废弃物管理研究和实践提供参考.Scientific estimation and prediction of construction waste output is the basis of effective management of construction waste.Based on the combined prediction model of grey model,ARIMA model and exponential smoothing model,the output of construction waste in Fujian province from 2021 to 2030 was predicted,and the trend of estimated construction waste in nine districts and cities in Fujian province from 2010 to 2020 was tested,and the spatial distribution characteristics of construction waste output in Fujian province were analyzed.The results show that the construction waste output of Fujian province and its nine districts and cities shows an overall growth trend from 2010 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030,but the construction waste output is significantly uneven in the spatial distribution of each district and city,and the construction waste output of cities with rapid economic development,high degree of urbanization and fast process is higher.The predictive analysis method and conclusion of this paper can provide reference for the research and practice of construction waste management.

关 键 词：建筑废弃物 产量预测 空间分布 组合预测模型 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]