特朗普再执政对中国出口的影响:基于合成控制法的动态分析  

The Impact of Trump's Re-election on China's Export Trade:A Dynamic Analysis Based on the Synthetic Control Method

作　　者：田雅洁 季捷 汪寿阳[1,2,3] 魏云捷 TIAN Yajiel;JI Jie;WANG Shouyang;WEI Yunjie(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences,Chinses Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [3]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院预测科学研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2025年第1期197-217,共21页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72171223,71988101);中国科学院青年创新促进会。

摘　　要：中美贸易争端是近年来国际贸易领域的重大事件,其对中美贸易产生了深远影响.本文以2018和2019年特朗普两次对中国产品加征关税为背景,运用合成控制法从两个层次研究其影响:第一,分析关税政策对中国对美国出口额的动态影响,识别政策实施前后的变化趋势;第二,探讨21个HS大类产品的异质性影响,揭示不同类别产品对关税政策的敏感度差异.本文进一步结合历史政策效果,对特朗普本次执政可能对中美贸易的潜在影响进行推断与预测.结果显示,若特朗普在未来继续实施类似政策,中国对美国出口额将再次下降.政策初期囤货效应等市场行为可能引发出口额向上波动,但随后出口降幅将逐步增加.高价格弹性类产品所受的潜在影响相对大于高附加值产品,但由于美国的技术限制措施,高科技类产品的出口也将面临较大压力.本文为理解中美贸易争端的经济影响、评估关税政策的后果以及制定应对措施提供了参考.The China-U.S.trade dispute has been a significant event in the field of international trade in recent years,with profound impacts on bilateral trade relations.This study examines the effects of the 2018 and 2019 tariff increases imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods using the synthetic control method from two perspectives.First,we analyze the dynamic impacts of tariff policies on China's total exports to the U.S.,identifying changes before and after policy implementation.Second,we investigate the heterogeneous impacts across 21 HS product categories,uncovering variations in sensitivity to tariff policies.Furthermore,based on the historical policy effects,this study predicts the potential impacts of similar tariff policies under Trump's new administration on China-U.S.trade.The results suggest that if similar policies are implemented,China's total exports to the U.S.will experience further declines.In the early stage of the policy,market behaviors such as stockpiling and anticipatory exports may temporarily drive up export values,but the decline in exports will gradually increase thereafter.Products with high price elasticity are likely to face greater negative impacts compared to high-value-added products,but high-tech products will also face significant pressure due to U.S.technological restrictions.This study provides valuable insights into the economic impacts of the China-U.S.trade dispute,evaluates the consequences of tariff policies,and offers guidance for policymaking.

关 键 词：中美贸易争端 关税 政策评估 合成控制法 动态分析 

分 类 号：F757.12[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.62[经济管理—产业经济]