尼泊尔对外贸易格局演化及其影响因素  

Evolution of Nepal’s foreign trade patterns and its driving factors

作　　者：高珊珊 管靖 宋周莺[1,2] GAO Shanshan;GUAN Jing;SONG Zhouying(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2025年第2期327-342,共16页Progress in Geography

基　　金：中国科学院海外科教合作中心部署项目(162GJHZ2022004MI);CAS-ANSO可持续发展研究计划项目(CAS-ANSOSDRP-2024-05)。

摘　　要：尼泊尔是中国在南亚共建“一带一路”的重要合作伙伴。深入解析尼泊尔对外贸易格局演化及其影响因素,对强化中尼合作、打造中尼印经济走廊、推动“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。论文基于2001-2022年尼泊尔对外贸易数据,采用GIS空间分析及面板回归模型对尼泊尔的贸易格局演化及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①2001-2022年尼泊尔对外贸易规模呈波动上升态势,总体经历了低速增长期、恢复发展期、波动发展期三个阶段。②2009-2022年,尼泊尔进口商品结构均衡且稳定,以资源密集型和技术密集型产品为主导;而出口商品结构较单一,以资源密集的初级产品为主导。③从时空格局看,尼泊尔对外贸易高度依赖邻国印度,其贸易伙伴较为集中且主要为周边邻国和世界贸易大国;其进口格局由“周边集聚”向“南北均衡”转变,出口格局则由印度“单核心”转向印度-美国“双核心”。④从贸易流看,尼泊尔-印度是核心贸易流,除个别商品外,尼泊尔的主要进出口商品均主要流向和来自印度;其从重点进口国家的进口贸易流各有侧重但商品结构较为稳定,对重点出口国家的出口贸易流始终以纺织原料和产品为主。⑤从影响因素看,语言、组织、地理、政治倾向和贸易政策构成了多维邻近性体系的主导因素,而其他影响由经济发展水平、工业化水平、政治稳定水平所驱动。Nepal is an important partner of China in building the Belt and Road in South Asia.In-depth analysis of the evolution of Nepal's foreign trade pattern and its driving factors is of great significance,not only for strengthening Sino-Nepalese cooperation and building the China-Nepal-India Economic Corridor,but also for promoting the construction of the Belt and Road.Based on Nepal's foreign trade data from 2009 to 2022,this study analyzed Nepal's trade pattern change and its driving factors using GIS spatial analysis and the panel regression model.The results are as follows:1)From 2001 to 2022,the scale of Nepal's foreign trade was fluctuating and rising,which can be divided into three stages:slowly growing,recovering and developing,and fluctuating and developing.2)From 2009 to 2022,Nepal's import commodity structure was relatively balanced and stable,dominated by resource-intensive and technology-intensive products.The export commodity structure was relatively homogeneous,dominated by resource-intensive primary products.3)With regard to the spatial and temporal patterns,Nepal's foreign trade was highly dependent on its neighbor India.Its trading partners were more concentrated and mainly distributed in the neighboring countries and the world's major trading countries.The import pattern changed from peripheral agglomeration to north-south equilibrium,and the export pattern changed from single-core of India to double core of India-the United States.4)As for the main trade flows,Nepal-India represented the core trade flow.Its import trade flow from key importing countries showed different focuses,but the commodity structure was relatively stable,and the export trade flow to key exporting countries was always dominated by textile raw materials and products.5)The change of Nepal's foreign trade pattern was mainly driven by language proximity,organizational proximity,geographical proximity,political tendency proximity,and trade policy proximity,while other influences were driven by economic development,industrialization

关 键 词：贸易格局 贸易流 多维邻近性 影响因素 尼泊尔 

分 类 号：F753.55[经济管理—国际贸易]