中国区域产业链对外风险敞口的测度、比较与模拟--兼论新发展格局下产业链安全构建路径  

Measurement,Comparison,and Simulation of Risk Exposure in China's Regional Industrial Chains--On the Path of Construction of Industrial Chain Security under the New Development Pattern

作　　者：葛海燕[1] 张少军[2] 丁晓强 Ge Haiyan;Zhang Shaojun;Ding Xiaoqiang

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]厦门大学经济学院 [3]合肥工业大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2025年第2期106-117,共12页Economist

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国高技术产业链风险敞口的动态演化、形成机理与调控路径研究”(23YJC790017);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“数据要素市场化配置赋能中国制造业产业链创新链深度融合的作用机理与政策研究”(24YJC790050)。

摘　　要：测度国内区域层面的产业链对外风险敞口,可以加深对产业链风险系统性和异质性的认知,不仅有助于统筹国内国际两个大局来保障产业链安全,而且可以推动新发展格局的构建。本文拓展构建了国内区域层面产业链对外风险敞口及其结构的测算方法,利用2017年内嵌中国省份的全球多区域投入产出表,系统考察中国区域层面产业链对外风险敞口的典型特征及全球产业链重构的潜在影响,主要的发现有:第一,中国区域层面供给侧与需求侧的综合产业链对外风险敞口均主要由国际产业链间接联系所引发的隐性产业链对外风险敞口构成。第二,中国区域层面供给侧与需求侧的产业链对外风险敞口均主要集中在资本密集型和知识密集型制造业,而且资本密集型和知识密集型制造业的产业链风险主要产生自国际产业链的间接联系。第三,中国区域层面供给侧和需求侧产业链对外风险敞口的市场集中度均比较高,而且来源国主要集中在美日韩三国。第四,依靠“国内其他省份+RCEP伙伴国”和“国内其他省份+‘一带一路’沿线国家”替代中美产业链,可以缩小中国区域层面供给侧与需求侧的产业链对外风险敞口。Measuring the risk exposure of the domestic industrial chain at the regional level can deepen the cognition of the systematic and heterogeneous risk of the industrial chain,which can not only helps to coordinate the domestic and interna⁃tional situations to ensure the security of the industrial chain,but also better guides the construction of the new development pat⁃tern.This paper constructs a method for calculating the risk exposure and its structures in provincial industrial chains,and based on the global multi-regional input-output table embedded with Chinese provinces in 2017,systematically examines the typical characteristics of each province's risk exposure in industrial chains and the potential impact of the reconstruction of the global in⁃dustrial chain.The main findings are as follows:First,the comprehensive risk exposure of the supply-side and demand-side in⁃dustrial chains at China's regional level is mainly composed of hidden risk exposure which is caused by the indirect connection of the international industrial chain.Second,the risk exposure of the supply-side and demand-side industrial chains at China's regional level are mainly concentrated in capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive manufacturing industries.Moreover,the in⁃dustrial chain risks of capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive manufacturing industries mainly arise from the indirect links of the international industrial chain.Third,the market concentration of the risk exposure of the supply-side and demand-side in⁃dustrial chains at China's regional level are very high,and the source countries of the industrial chain risks are mainly concen⁃trated in the United States,Japan and South Korea.Fourth,relying on"other domestic provinces+RCEP partner countries"or"other domestic provinces+countries along the'Belt and Road'"to replace the Sino-US industrial chain can fully disperse the risk exposure of the supply-side and demand-side industrial chains at China's regional level.

关 键 词：产业链对外风险敞口 供给侧 需求侧 新发展格局 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]