长三角城市群城镇化进程中人地关系的时空耦合特征及影响因素研究  

Spatio-temporal coupling and influencing factors of manland relationship in the urbanization process of the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：陈绍军[1] 余丹阳 CHEN Shaojun;YU Danyang(School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学公共管理学院,南京211100

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2025年第2期114-127,共14页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(21&ZD183);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(B220207041);2021人文社科专项研究项目(B210207025)。

摘　　要：促进人地协调发展是实现以人为核心的新型城镇化的重要举措。基于2006—2020年长三角城市群面板数据,构建人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合协调度模型,并运用ArcGIS软件,测度人地关系时空耦合特征;通过构建固定效应模型,研究长三角城市群人地耦合协调发展的影响因素。结果表明:①长三角一体化战略对长三角城市群人地耦合特征影响显著;②长三角地区人口与土地城镇化耦合协调度整体呈上升趋势,且不同城市间的差距不断缩小,区域均衡性不断提升;③空间分布上,高值分布于上海与南京,低值则分布于区域边缘,东西方向上呈“西低东高”,南北方向上以长江主航道为轴线呈“倒U”形分布;④产业结构、人口承载压力、经济发展水平、固定资产投资、国有土地使用权出让和对外开放程度对耦合协调度的影响程度依次减小,各地区间的影响因素差异较为显著。Promoting the coordinated development of population urbanization and land urbanization is an important measure to realize the new urbanization with people as the core.Based on the panel data of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta from 2006 to 2020,this paper constructed a coupling and coordination degree model of population urbanization and land urbanization as well as using ArcGIS to measure their coordinated development relationship and spatial-temporal characteristics;By constructing a fixed effect model,this paper found out the influencing factors of the coupling and coordination of population urbanization and land urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that:(1)The integration strategy of the Yangtze River Delta has a significant impact on the human-land coupling characteristics of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration;(2)The degree of coupling and coordination of population urbanization and land urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta region is on the rise as a whole,and the gap between different cities is becoming smaller and smaller,and the regional balance is rising;(3)Spatially,the high value is distributed in Shanghai and Nanjing,while the low value is distributed in the regional edge.It is"low in the West and high in the East"in the east-west direction,and"inverted U"in the north-south direction with the main channel of the Yangtze River as the axis;(4)The influence of industrial structure,population carrying pressure,economic development level,fixed asset investment,transfer of state-owned land use right and the degree of opening to the outside world on the coupled coordinated dispatching decreases in turn.Except for the negative impact of the degree of opening to the outside world,other factors have a positive impact.In addition,there are significant differences in influencing factors among regions.

关 键 词：长三角城市群 人地关系 人口城镇化 土地城镇化 区域协调发展 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] F299.27