中国水资源利用效率与生态韧性的协调度及动力因素研究  

Coordination degree and driving factors of water resources utilization efficiency and ecological resilience in China

作　　者：张明斗 任衍婷 刘耀彬[2] ZHANG Mingdou;REN Yanting;LIU Yaobin(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,大连116025 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌330031

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2025年第2期168-180,共13页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家科技重点研发专项课题(2022yfd1600603);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD034)。

摘　　要：明晰中国水资源利用效率与生态韧性的协调关系,是对新时代生态文明建设以及人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化的积极响应。以中国内地30个省(市、区)为研究对象,运用协调度模型、核密度估计、GIS空间分析和空间马尔可夫链等方法,对2008—2020年我国水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调度的时序演变、空间分布及状态转移趋势进行全面分析,并引入空间滞后Tobit模型探究其动力因素。结果表明:①水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调度整体呈持续增长态势,但区域间的绝对差异有所扩大,空间上呈现“东-中-西”梯度递减格局,高值区集聚在东部沿海地区。②水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调度的状态转移存在俱乐部收敛特征;中高及高水平地区趋同效应更为明显;当邻地协调度高于本地时,正向空间溢出效应得以发挥,随着邻地协调度提升,溢出效应更为突出。③内源动力是我国水资源利用效率与生态韧性协调度提升的主要动力,政府动力和外向动力之间存在开发不充分的问题;各地区动力因素存在异质性,东、西部地区内源动力占据主导,而政府动力与外向动力在中部地区则显著促进了协调度的提升。Clarifying the coordination relationship between water resources utilization efficiency and ecological resilience in China is a positive response to the construction of ecological civilization in the new era and the Chinese modernization featuring harmonious coexistence between man and nature.This paper took 30 provinces(municipalities and districts)in China's Mainland as the research object,used the coordination degree model,kernel density estimation,GIS spatial analysis,and spatial Markov chain to comprehensively analyze the temporal evolution,spatial distribution,and state transition trends of coordination degree between water resources utilization efficiency and ecological resilience in China from 2008 to 2020,as well as introduced the spatial lag Tobit model to explore the driving factors.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of temporal evolution,the coordination degree presents continuous growth trend,but the absolute difference between regions expands.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the coordination degree presents a gradient descending pattern of"east-central-west",and the highvalue area is mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal area.(2)The state transfer of coordination degree has club convergence characteristics,and the convergence effect is more obvious in the middle-level and high-level areas.When the coordination degree of neighbors is higher than that of the local area,the positive spatial spillover effect can play a role,and the spillover effect becomes more prominent with improving coordination degree of neighbors.(3)Endogenous power is the main driving force for the improvement of coordination degree in our country,while government power and exogenous power have the problem of insufficient development.There is heterogeneity in the driving factors across regions,with endogenous power dominating in the east and west,while government power and exogenous power significantly contribute to the improvement of coordination in the central region.

关 键 词：水资源利用效率 生态韧性 协调度 时空演变 动力因素 

分 类 号：TV2[水利工程]